Backtest
For each historical model prediction older than the cutoff, we check whether any eBay AU sold listing in the next window days actually met or exceeded the predicted sell price. This is the canonical "was the model right?" test on real transactions.
Predictions evaluated
48435
older than 0d
With realised eBay data
2322
≥1 AU sold within 42d
Prediction met
793
34% hit rate
By velocity tier
If "strong" velocity hits 90%+ but "weak" hits 30%, the model's velocity assignment is well-calibrated. If "strong" underperforms, the 0.92 ratio is too aggressive — drop it.
| Velocity | Predictions | With sales | Met | Hit rate | Predicted sell | Realised max | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| medium | 5168 | 67 | 0 | 0% | A$55.42 | A$15.89 | -71% |
| strong | 12830 | 753 | 327 | 43% | A$136.14 | A$154.16 | +13% |
| weak | 30437 | 1502 | 466 | 31% | A$240.68 | A$218.08 | -9% |
By game
| Game | Predictions | With sales | Met | Hit rate | Predicted sell | Realised max | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| magic | 40335 | 1634 | 515 | 32% | A$165.70 | A$110.81 | -33% |
| pokemon | 8100 | 688 | 278 | 40% | A$286.29 | A$383.19 | +34% |
Per-prediction details (most recent 100)
| Scan | Card | Velocity | Predicted | Realised max | Met? | Sales |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/16/2026 | Latias & Latios-GX sm9 foil | weak | A$2354.85 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Gengar & Mimikyu-GX sm9 | medium | A$1178.82 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Arceus & Dialga & Palkia-GX sm12 foil | medium | A$820.44 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Rocket's Zapdos ex ex7 foil | weak | A$658.03 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Deoxys-EX bw9 foil | medium | A$496.63 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | M Gengar-EX xy4 foil | weak | A$430.91 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Gengar-EX xy4 foil | weak | A$441.10 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Gengar & Mimikyu-GX sm9 foil | weak | A$376.44 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Black Kyurem-EX bw7 foil | weak | A$307.71 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Greninja & Zoroark-GX sm10 foil | weak | A$295.81 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Slowpoke & Psyduck-GX sm11 foil | weak | A$299.07 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Light Dragonite neo4 foil | weak | A$296.36 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Armored Mewtwo smp foil | weak | A$259.49 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Crobat ecard3 foil | weak | A$329.06 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Solgaleo & Lunala-GX sm12 foil | weak | A$290.16 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Rocket's Articuno ex ex7 foil | weak | A$247.73 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Primal Kyogre-EX xy5 foil | strong | A$189.45 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Gliscor LV.X dp6 foil | medium | A$115.50 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Mr. Mime ex ex6 foil | weak | A$88.22 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Dark Raichu base5 foil | strong | A$142.94 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Patrat rsv10pt5 | strong | A$18.60 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Loudred sv4 | strong | A$16.59 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Juggernaut lea | weak | A$694.55 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Riding the Dilu Horse ptk | weak | A$856.03 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Library of Leng lea | weak | A$361.68 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | City of Brass 8ed | weak | A$145.23 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Lady Sun ptk | weak | A$166.52 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Warrior's Oath ptk | weak | A$234.64 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Cursed Land lea | weak | A$209.72 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Tainted Aether 7ed | weak | A$71.57 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Control Magic lea | weak | A$346.42 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Hua Tuo, Honored Physician ptk | weak | A$89.97 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Lu Bu, Master-at-Arms ptk | weak | A$97.49 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Wanderlust lea | weak | A$119.82 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Thicket Basilisk lea | weak | A$143.59 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Chrome Mox mrd | strong | A$206.68 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Red Ward lea | weak | A$84.53 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Jade Monolith leb | weak | A$139.47 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Slashing Tiger ptk | weak | A$87.18 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Ravages of War ptk | weak | A$283.93 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Black Ward lea | weak | A$82.88 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Camouflage lea | weak | A$123.21 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Sun Ce, Young Conquerer ptk | weak | A$98.62 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Wort, Boggart Auntie lrw | strong | A$55.86 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Dingus Egg leb | weak | A$142.56 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Craw Wurm lea | weak | A$99.45 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Purelace leb | weak | A$192.59 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Doubling Cube 10e | medium | A$59.30 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Zhang Liao, Hero of Hefei ptk | weak | A$64.65 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Karma lea | weak | A$132.60 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Borrowing the East Wind ptk | weak | A$99.45 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Zhang He, Wei General ptk | weak | A$121.48 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Fog lea | weak | A$80.31 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Meng Huo, Barbarian King ptk | weak | A$85.78 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Piracy p02 | weak | A$87.38 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Wall of Swords lea | weak | A$91.21 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Lu Meng, Wu General ptk | weak | A$68.29 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Zhang Fei, Fierce Warrior ptk | weak | A$179.49 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Cao Ren, Wei Commander ptk | weak | A$94.15 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Biorhythm 9ed | weak | A$82.01 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Lady Zhurong, Warrior Queen ptk | weak | A$111.38 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Polluted Delta ons | strong | A$200.27 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Balance of Power ptk | weak | A$92.16 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Grizzly Bears lea | weak | A$84.53 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Chrome Mox 2xm | medium | A$239.06 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Shanodin Dryads lea | weak | A$56.36 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Guan Yu, Sainted Warrior ptk | weak | A$63.65 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Sword of Fire and Ice dst | medium | A$64.57 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Windswept Heath ons | strong | A$107.59 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Wall of Brambles lea | weak | A$53.86 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Giant Growth lea | weak | A$132.60 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Zodiac Pig ptk | weak | A$59.01 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Lifeforce lea | weak | A$95.87 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Zhao Zilong, Tiger General ptk | weak | A$116.34 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Cao Cao, Lord of Wei ptk | weak | A$55.27 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Uthden Troll lea | weak | A$125.97 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Throne of Bone lea | weak | A$106.00 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Poison Arrow ptk | weak | A$34.22 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Three Visits ptk | weak | A$77.97 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Zodiac Rat ptk | weak | A$44.42 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Sima Yi, Wei Field Marshal ptk | weak | A$33.25 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Dwarven Demolition Team lea | weak | A$99.45 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Llanowar Wastes 9ed | weak | A$23.67 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Eightfold Maze ptk | weak | A$60.91 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Goblin Welder ulg | weak | A$73.26 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Black Knight leb | weak | A$217.93 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Green Ward lea | weak | A$42.84 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Panoptic Mirror dst | strong | A$30.83 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Disintegrate lea | weak | A$82.46 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Elvish Reclaimer mb2 | weak | A$24.09 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Thrumming Stone 2x2 | medium | A$36.31 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Doubling Cube 5dn | strong | A$45.23 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Natural Affinity 8ed | weak | A$22.68 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Norin the Wary tsp | weak | A$29.37 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Blightsteel Colossus plst | medium | A$62.95 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Scalding Tarn slu | weak | A$76.25 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Shizo, Death's Storehouse chk | medium | A$58.94 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Wei Night Raiders ptk | weak | A$33.53 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Ma Chao, Western Warrior ptk | weak | A$66.96 | — | no data | 0 |
| 5/16/2026 | Conversion lea | weak | A$72.93 | — | no data | 0 |