v2 cross-arch review queue

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Opps where the Sonnet panel (5 members, prompt-variance framings) disagreed with the Opus single-agent cross-architecture call. 3 flagged for review · 3 cross-arch disagreements · top 100 by profit.
Cross-arch disagreement is the highest-signal v2 lever — these are cases where 5×Sonnet might share a systematic blind spot the Opus cross-call catches (or vice versa).

Arceus & Dialga & Palkia-GXsm12 #221 · foil · pokemon

RECORD BUY →scan 16/5/26, 8:26 am

Engine

EU €111.60 → A$820

Profit A$414 · ROI 206%

Panel (3/5)

DERATED

Opus

CONFIRMED

conf: medium

per-call reasoning

[skeptical] DERATED eBay AU n=4 over 90d is thin (medium velocity) and Good Games in-stock at A$911-944 suggests retail ceiling is real, but the engine's A$820 prediction sits plausibly within the sold range (median A$801, max A$919); primary risk is that 5 GG units in stock plus low undercut signal slow clearing, and a single outlier sale (A$919) may inflate the median - derate slightly to reflect realistic clearance below retail ceiling with illiquidity drag.

[bullish] CONFIRMED AU dealer in-stock at A$911-944 and eBay AU 90d median A$801 (n=4, max A$919) both sit well above the engine's A$820 sell prediction, confirming price level; only cautions are thin eBay velocity (n=4) and no buylist depth, consistent with medium velocity and low undercut in a thinly-stocked market.

[veteran] DERATED ADP-GX sm12 #221 is the alternate-art secret rare - eBay AU n=4 median A$801 and Good Games in-stock at A$911-944 are internally consistent and suggest a real liquid market, but the engine's A$820 prediction is reasonable while its 206% ROI headline is based on an EU buy trend (E101) that has been compressing (avg30d E90), and medium velocity + only 1 AU listing means clearing risk is meaningful; a veteran would shade the clearing price 5-10% off Good Games retail and treat this as a real but execution-sensitive position, not a layup.

[data-first] CONFIRMED eBay AU sold sample (n=4, median A$801, max A$919) and Good Games dealer stock (A$911-A$944) both triangulate tightly around the engine's A$820 sell prediction; Cardmarket avg7d E94.18 supports the EU buy at E111.60 as plausible (trend is higher at E101.45). Low AU supply (1 in stock) and medium velocity with no buylist offers are consistent with a real but illiquid opportunity at the engine's price point.

[context-first] DERATED ADP-GX sm12 #221 is a genuine chase card with strong AU dealer pricing (A$911-944) and thin eBay AU sold depth (n=4), but the engine's A$820 sell prediction is inflated by PSA-slab contamination risk in a 4-sale sample and single-dealer ask anchoring; realistic NM raw clearing price is closer to A$650-700 given the wide bid-ask spread and no AU buylist interest. Medium velocity with only 1 competing AU listing is promising but insufficient to trust the full A$820 projection.

[opus-balanced] CONFIRMED ADP-GX (SM12 #221, Rainbow Rare) is a chase card with strong format/collector demand; eBay AU sold n=4 median A$801 plus 5 dealer asks A$911-944 corroborate engine's ~A$820 prediction. Thin liquidity (1 in stock, n=4 sold/90d) is the main risk, but price level is plausible.

Polluted Deltaons #321 · magic

RECORD BUY →scan 16/5/26, 8:25 am

Engine

EU €69.05 → A$200

Profit A$24 · ROI 19%

Panel (4/5)

DERATED

Opus

CONFIRMED

conf: medium

per-call reasoning

[skeptical] DERATED eBay AU n=5 is thin and the max of A$243 likely inflates the engine A$200 sell; dealer NM stock A$188-206 + median A$191 → clearing A$180-190 after undercut.

[bullish] CONFIRMED ONS Polluted Delta dealer NM stock A$188-233, eBay sold median A$191 max A$243 — supports A$200 target; thin volume (n=5) caps conviction.

[veteran] DERATED Real liquid EDH staple but engine A$200 overshoots: n=5 skews median up, 6 in-stock + Ronin A$173 EX → NM clears A$180-190 with undercut drag.

[data-first] DERATED eBay AU sold median (n=5, A$191) and dealer NM asks cluster A$188-A$206, both below engine A$200; 6 dealers create undercut compression toward A$191.

[context-first] DERATED Legacy/Vintage staple + EDHREC-38; eBay n=5 over 90d thin, median A$191 below engine A$200, dealer NM A$188-233 with 6 in-stock undercut → A$180-190 realistic.

[opus-balanced] CONFIRMED Polluted Delta ONS — RL-adjacent fetchland with deep eternal demand. CM trend ~€65, AU sold median A$191, dealer NM A$188-206 brackets A$200 cleanly.

Goblin Welderulg #80 · magic

RECORD BUY →scan 16/5/26, 8:25 am

Engine

EU €24.91 → A$73

Profit A$14 · ROI 31%

Panel (5/5)

WRONG

Opus

DERATED

conf: high

per-call reasoning

[skeptical] WRONG 0 eBay AU sold 90d. Only AU dealer prices (A$483-675 EX) are outlier single-dealer asks on Exodus copies, not Urza's Legacy → A$73 NM prediction unsupported. Weak velocity + 0 confirmed AU sales = no empirical basis.

[bullish] WRONG 0 eBay AU sold 90d, no buylist → no real AU demand. AU dealer prices A$483-675 EX = outliers on Exodus copies not Urza's Legacy; A$73 sell prediction entirely unsupported. Weak velocity + 0 confirmed = terminal signal.

[veteran] WRONG 0 eBay AU sales 90d + weak velocity + no buylist = fatal liquidity signal. AU dealer asks A$483-675 EX = single-desk stale asks on non-English-market card with zero local traffic. NM ULG Goblin Welder has tiny AU collector base.

[data-first] WRONG 0 eBay AU sold comps 90d + no AU buylist → A$73 unanchored. Only AU data points = EX-condition dealer asks A$483-675 = outliers not comparable NM sold prices. Weak velocity + 0 confirmed AU sales = no evidence of liquid AU market.

[context-first] WRONG Goblin Welder ULG Legacy/Vintage staple but 0 eBay AU sold 90d + AU dealer asks A$483-675 EX = illiquid collector market. Engine A$73 NM has no AU velocity anchor; single-dealer-ask contamination risk extreme.

[opus-balanced] DERATED Goblin Welder real EDH/Vintage staple but ulg printing compressed by DMR reprint (2026 Dominaria Remastered) typically flattens older printings 20-30%. 0 AU sold + only 2 in stock + weak velocity → A$48-62 fair clearing unless Vintage/Legacy catalyst.