mtgarbbuy globally → sell AU · MTG + Pokémon
VERDICTS
2026·05·1690 OPPS0 BUNDLE
ɴ confirmed
06
ɴ derated
31
ɴ skip
50
ɴ pending
03
claude-sonnet-4-6
10
90
POLLUTED DELTA
DERATED
SET ons #321GAME magicVEL strongEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 5
EU ACQ
€69.05
A$114
MODEL AU
A$200
19% ROI · 60d
·
JUDGE AU
A$185
-15 vs model

SONNETReal liquid EDH staple but engine A$200 overshoots: n=5 skews median up, 6 in-stock + Ronin A$173 EX → NM clears A$180-190 with undercut drag.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
10
90
POLLUTED DELTA
DERATED
SET ons #321GAME magicVEL strongEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 5
EU ACQ
€69.05
A$114
MODEL AU
A$200
19% ROI · 60d
·
JUDGE AU
A$185
-15 vs model

SONNETeBay AU n=5 is thin and the max of A$243 likely inflates the engine A$200 sell; dealer NM stock A$188-206 + median A$191 → clearing A$180-190 after undercut.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
10
90
POLLUTED DELTA
CONFIRMED
SET ons #321GAME magicVEL strongEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 5
EU ACQ
€69.05
A$114
MODEL AU
A$200
19% ROI · 60d
·
JUDGE AU
A$200
0 vs model

SONNETONS Polluted Delta dealer NM stock A$188-233, eBay sold median A$191 max A$243 — supports A$200 target; thin volume (n=5) caps conviction.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
10
90
POLLUTED DELTA
CONFIRMED
SET ons #321GAME magicVEL strongEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 5
EU ACQ
€69.05
A$114
MODEL AU
A$200
19% ROI · 60d
·
JUDGE AU
A$195
-5 vs model

OPUSPolluted Delta ONS — RL-adjacent fetchland with deep eternal demand. CM trend ~€65, AU sold median A$191, dealer NM A$188-206 brackets A$200 cleanly.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
10
90
POLLUTED DELTA
DERATED
SET ons #321GAME magicVEL strongEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 5
EU ACQ
€69.05
A$114
MODEL AU
A$200
19% ROI · 60d
·
JUDGE AU
A$185
-15 vs model

SONNETLegacy/Vintage staple + EDHREC-38; eBay n=5 over 90d thin, median A$191 below engine A$200, dealer NM A$188-233 with 6 in-stock undercut → A$180-190 realistic.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
10
90
POLLUTED DELTA
DERATED
SET ons #321GAME magicVEL strongEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 5
EU ACQ
€69.05
A$114
MODEL AU
A$200
19% ROI · 60d
·
JUDGE AU
A$191
-9 vs model

SONNETeBay AU sold median (n=5, A$191) and dealer NM asks cluster A$188-A$206, both below engine A$200; 6 dealers create undercut compression toward A$191.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
28
90
PURELACE
×WRONG · SKIP
SET leb #33GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€60.49
A$100
MODEL AU
A$193
30% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$193
+0 vs model

SONNETPurelace LEB — RL mono-white junk rare, EDHREC ~30k zero Commander demand, 0 AU eBay sales 90d. Single A$495 ask = stale collector price; CM avg30d €87 vs avg7d €63 → recent drop. Engine A$192 = data artefact.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
28
90
PURELACE
×WRONG · SKIP
SET leb #33GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€60.49
A$100
MODEL AU
A$193
30% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$193
+0 vs model

SONNETPurelace LEB is RL but EDHREC 30079 = near-zero demand; 0 AU sold 90d, single dealer ask A$495 not a liquid market; CM avg30d €87.52 vs avg7d €63.66 → sharp deflation.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
28
90
PURELACE
×WRONG · SKIP
SET leb #33GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€60.49
A$100
MODEL AU
A$193
30% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$193
+0 vs model

SONNETPurelace LEB: RL, 0 AU sold 90d, no buylist, EDHREC 30079 — near-zero Commander demand. Single A$495 dealer ask is one illiquid anchor; CM avg30d €87 vs avg7d €63 signals deflation.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
28
90
PURELACE
×WRONG · SKIP
SET leb #33GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€60.49
A$100
MODEL AU
A$193
30% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$193
+0 vs model

SONNET0 AU eBay sales 90d, no buylist → no liquid AU demand. Single A$495 dealer ask = isolated illiquid ask; CM avg7d/avg30d gap signals EU compression; A$192 has no triangulating support.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
28
90
PURELACE
×WRONG · SKIP
SET leb #33GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€60.49
A$100
MODEL AU
A$193
30% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$193
+0 vs model

SONNETPurelace LEB: RL but EDHREC 30079, 0 AU eBay sold 90d, no buylist, single A$495 dealer ask is stale single-dealer artifact. A$192 sell prediction has no support.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
28
90
PURELACE
×WRONG · SKIP
SET leb #33GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€60.49
A$100
MODEL AU
A$193
30% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$193
+0 vs model

OPUSPurelace LEB: RL, near-zero playable demand (EDHREC 30079, near-dead). Lone A$495 ask is single-dealer aspirational not liquid market — 0 eBay AU sales 90d, no buylist confirm no clearing channel.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
37
90
WALL OF SWORDS
×WRONG · SKIP
SET lea #42GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€27.12
A$45
MODEL AU
A$91
51% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$91
+0 vs model

OPUSWall of Swords LEA: RL but EDHREC 19728 near-zero playable demand. A$245 single-dealer is illiquid collector outlier; 0 90d AU sales + weak velocity → A$91 in 120d implausible at A$50 landed cost.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
37
90
WALL OF SWORDS
×WRONG · SKIP
SET lea #42GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€27.12
A$45
MODEL AU
A$91
51% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$91
+0 vs model

SONNETVanilla LEA uncommon creature, EDHREC ~19728, 0 AU eBay 90d, no buylist, CM trend €77→€43→€34 sharp compression. Single A$245 ask is illiquid outlier; A$91 has no velocity for 120d realisation.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
37
90
WALL OF SWORDS
×WRONG · SKIP
SET lea #42GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€27.12
A$45
MODEL AU
A$91
51% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$91
+0 vs model

SONNETLEA Wall of Swords: 0 AU sales 90d, no buylist, EDHREC ~20k = effectively no AU retail demand. 30d CM €77 vs trend €34 = sharp collapse; A$245 dealer ask is illiquid placeholder.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
37
90
WALL OF SWORDS
×WRONG · SKIP
SET lea #42GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€27.12
A$45
MODEL AU
A$91
51% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$91
+0 vs model

SONNETWall of Swords LEA #42: 0 AU sold 90d, EDHREC 19728 negligible. Single A$245 dealer = isolated stale outlier; CM avg30d €77 vs trend €34 → 30d distorted by spikes. A$91 unsupported.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
37
90
WALL OF SWORDS
×WRONG · SKIP
SET lea #42GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€27.12
A$45
MODEL AU
A$91
51% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$91
+0 vs model

SONNETWall of Swords LEA RL uncommon, 0 AU sold 90d, no buylist, single A$245 dealer ask is illiquid outlier. CM avg30d €77 vs avg7d €43 vs trend €34 — sharp collapse; EDHREC 19728 negligible demand.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
37
90
WALL OF SWORDS
×WRONG · SKIP
SET lea #42GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€27.12
A$45
MODEL AU
A$91
51% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$91
+0 vs model

SONNET0 AU sales 90d, no buylist → near-zero liquidity. Single A$245 ask not a clearing price; CM 30d €77 vs 7d €43 → sharp recent decay; EDHREC 19728, weak velocity, 120d horizon → no triangulation.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
41
90
BIORHYTHM
?UNVERIFIED
SET 9ed #231★GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€23.34
A$39
MODEL AU
A$82
56% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$82
+0 vs model

SONNET0 AU sold 90d + no buylist → no triangulation. Two dealer listings A$124-125 suggest priced high in AU but weak velocity + 0 realised sales → engine cannot be confirmed or derated from data alone.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
41
90
BIORHYTHM
×WRONG · SKIP
SET 9ed #231★GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€23.34
A$39
MODEL AU
A$82
56% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$82
+0 vs model

SONNETBanned in Commander → primary demand driver gone. 0 eBay sales 90d, weak velocity, no buylist. Dealer asks A$124-125 stale single-ask illiquid. EDHREC 12650 fringe even if legal.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
41
90
BIORHYTHM
×WRONG · SKIP
SET 9ed #231★GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€23.34
A$39
MODEL AU
A$82
56% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$82
+0 vs model

OPUS9ED foil Biorhythm: niche cEDH/casual finisher with ~zero AU liquidity (0 eBay 90d, no buylist, 2 dealer asks A$124-125 EX/NM single-dealer above-market). Engine A$82 in 120d on weak velocity unsupported.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
41
90
BIORHYTHM
×WRONG · SKIP
SET 9ed #231★GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€23.34
A$39
MODEL AU
A$82
56% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$82
+0 vs model

SONNET0 AU sold 90d, no buylist → no clearing velocity. 2 dealer asks A$124-125 are isolated retail not liquid market; Biorhythm banned in Commander since 2010 → format exclusion drastically shrinks buyer pool.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
41
90
BIORHYTHM
DERATED
SET 9ed #231★GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€23.34
A$39
MODEL AU
A$82
56% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$70
-12 vs model

SONNETDealer asks A$124-125 support real AU premium, but 0 eBay sold 90d → no velocity confirmation. EDHREC 12650 + Commander-banned severely limits buyer pool to casual/cube. A$82 achievable with patience but 120d horizon with 0 sales = derate.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
41
90
BIORHYTHM
×WRONG · SKIP
SET 9ed #231★GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€23.34
A$39
MODEL AU
A$82
56% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$82
+0 vs model

SONNETBiorhythm Commander-banned (banned 2011), EDHREC 12650, 0 AU eBay sold 90d, weak velocity, no buylist. Dealer asks A$124-125 stale single-ask illiquid. No realistic AU clearing at A$82.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
42
90
LADY ZHURONG, WARRIOR QUEEN
DERATED
SET ptk #139GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 1
EU ACQ
€36.65
A$60
MODEL AU
A$111
36% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$95
-16 vs model
·
v2 VALUER
A$103
[A$80A$140] · width A$60

SONNETLady Zhurong PTK rare with genuine scarcity + Commander appeal (EDHREC 25k niche), dealer A$168-318 credible retail but not liquid. Single eBay A$160 is above-market outlier. Realistic A$95 with high variance.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
42
90
LADY ZHURONG, WARRIOR QUEEN
DERATED
SET ptk #139GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 1
EU ACQ
€36.65
A$60
MODEL AU
A$111
36% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$95
-16 vs model
·
v2 VALUER
A$103
[A$80A$140] · width A$60

OPUSPTK rare with legitimate scarcity + Commander demand, EDHREC 25314 niche. A$111 rests on n=1 eBay sold + 2 dealer asks (A$168/A$318) bracketing wide illiquid range; CM €41 → €36 softening.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
42
90
LADY ZHURONG, WARRIOR QUEEN
DERATED
SET ptk #139GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 1
EU ACQ
€36.65
A$60
MODEL AU
A$111
36% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$95
-16 vs model
·
v2 VALUER
A$103
[A$80A$140] · width A$60

SONNETeBay AU n=1 at A$160 = single-sample outlier cannot anchor median. Real liquid AU clearing closer to A$90-110; PTK card with EDHREC 25314 + weak velocity → low-demand.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
42
90
LADY ZHURONG, WARRIOR QUEEN
CONFIRMED
SET ptk #139GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 1
EU ACQ
€36.65
A$60
MODEL AU
A$111
36% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$130
+19 vs model
·
v2 VALUER
A$103
[A$80A$140] · width A$60

SONNETPTK rare with only 2 AU in stock + 1 eBay sold A$160 supports A$111 as conservative; dealer A$168-318 confirms AU market accepts above landed. Weak velocity + n=1 prevent higher confidence.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
42
90
LADY ZHURONG, WARRIOR QUEEN
DERATED
SET ptk #139GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 1
EU ACQ
€36.65
A$60
MODEL AU
A$111
36% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$110
-1 vs model
·
v2 VALUER
A$103
[A$80A$140] · width A$60

SONNETPTK rare with near-zero AU velocity (n=1 sold 90d), weak EDHREC 25k+. Single outlier eBay A$160 drags median; engine A$111 directionally plausible but 120-day horizon likely → 6-12 months to clear.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
42
90
LADY ZHURONG, WARRIOR QUEEN
DERATED
SET ptk #139GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 1
EU ACQ
€36.65
A$60
MODEL AU
A$111
36% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$130
+19 vs model
·
v2 VALUER
A$103
[A$80A$140] · width A$60

SONNETSingle eBay sold (n=1, A$160) and dealer asks A$168-A$318 suggest realized clearing ~A$130 for patient NM, but n=1 + no buylist make AU distribution highly uncertain.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
62
90
UTHDEN TROLL
?UNVERIFIED
SET lea #180GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€47.54
A$78
MODEL AU
A$126
19% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$126
+0 vs model

SONNET0 AU sold 90d + no AU buylist → no sell-side price signal. Single dealer A$190 EX = one illiquid data point; CM avg7d/avg30d divergence (€63 vs €94) suggests variant/condition conflation. Insufficient evidence.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
62
90
UTHDEN TROLL
×WRONG · SKIP
SET lea #180GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€47.54
A$78
MODEL AU
A$126
19% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$126
+0 vs model

SONNETUthden Troll LEA: RL uncommon, EDHREC 29066, 0 AU sales 90d, no buylist. Single A$190 EX ask = lone above-market ask not liquid signal. CM avg30d €94 vs avg7d €63 → sharp decline. Hold-forever collectible not arb.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
62
90
UTHDEN TROLL
×WRONG · SKIP
SET lea #180GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€47.54
A$78
MODEL AU
A$126
19% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$126
+0 vs model

OPUSUthden Troll LEA: RL Alpha card at €47.54 bottom of LEA-uncommon, but 0 AU sold comps, EDHREC 29066 near-zero EDH demand, single $190 EX dealer ask (illiquid single-dealer-above-market). A$126 NM clearing 120d unsupported.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
62
90
UTHDEN TROLL
×WRONG · SKIP
SET lea #180GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€47.54
A$78
MODEL AU
A$126
19% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$126
+0 vs model

SONNETLEA Uthden Troll: 0 AU sold 90d, single EX-condition dealer A$190 = no liquid AU sell-side. CM avg30d €94 vs avg7d €63 vs trend €57 → sharp collapse; EDHREC 29066 near-zero Commander demand.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
62
90
UTHDEN TROLL
DERATED
SET lea #180GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€47.54
A$78
MODEL AU
A$126
19% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$90
-36 vs model

SONNETLEA Uthden Troll: 0 AU eBay sold 90d, no buylist → speculative. One A$190 EX ask suggests ceiling but single-ask illiquidity; CM €94→€63 softening EU demand. Derate to ~A$90 reflects RL floor against thin sell-side.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
62
90
UTHDEN TROLL
×WRONG · SKIP
SET lea #180GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€47.54
A$78
MODEL AU
A$126
19% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$126
+0 vs model

SONNETUthden Troll LEA: RL uncommon deep-cut with near-zero EDH (rank 29066), 0 AU sold 90d. CM avg30d €94 vs avg7d €63 = sharp collapse; landed A$87 already stale-high. A$190 EX dealer ask is outlier not market.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
64
90
POISON ARROW
×WRONG · SKIP
SET ptk #80GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€6.24
A$10
MODEL AU
A$34
116% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$34
+0 vs model

SONNET0 eBay AU sold comps 90d + no buylist offers = no evidence of AU demand at any price. Single dealer ask A$148 is illiquid outlier not clearing price. Weak velocity + no sell-side signal → A$34 unsupported.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
64
90
POISON ARROW
×WRONG · SKIP
SET ptk #80GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€6.24
A$10
MODEL AU
A$34
116% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$34
+0 vs model

SONNETPoison Arrow PTK uncommon: 0 AU eBay sold 90d, single AU dealer outlier A$148, no buylist support — classic single-ask illiquidity masquerading as price signal. EDHREC 30465 + weak velocity confirm no meaningful AU demand.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
64
90
POISON ARROW
×WRONG · SKIP
SET ptk #80GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€6.24
A$10
MODEL AU
A$34
116% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$34
+0 vs model

SONNETPoison Arrow Portal Three Kingdoms EDHREC 30465: 0 eBay AU sold 90d, no buylist, weak velocity. Sole AU in-stock A$148 single-dealer ask above any clearing price. A$34 unsupported noise on obscure uncommon.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
64
90
POISON ARROW
×WRONG · SKIP
SET ptk #80GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€6.24
A$10
MODEL AU
A$34
116% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$34
+0 vs model

SONNET0 AU confirmed sales 90d (weak velocity, no price discovery). Sole AU ref is single dealer ask A$148 — stale collector outlier on low-play Portal Three Kingdoms uncommon (EDHREC 30465). No empirical anchor.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
64
90
POISON ARROW
×WRONG · SKIP
SET ptk #80GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€6.24
A$10
MODEL AU
A$34
116% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$34
+0 vs model

OPUSPTK uncommons: thin EU supply props CM trend €6.24 but AU demand essentially zero (0 eBay 90d, no buylist, single dealer A$148 = fantasy pricing). EDHREC 30k + weak velocity + 0 sold-comps = no liquid AU clearing path.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
64
90
POISON ARROW
×WRONG · SKIP
SET ptk #80GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€6.24
A$10
MODEL AU
A$34
116% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$34
+0 vs model

SONNETPoison Arrow PTK: narrow format-restricted sorcery with near-zero Commander/competitive play (EDHREC 30465). 0 AU eBay sold 90d + no buylist confirms no liquid AU market. Single A$148 ask is illiquid curiosity-price.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
70
90
GOBLIN WELDER
×WRONG · SKIP
SET ulg #80GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€24.91
A$41
MODEL AU
A$73
31% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$73
+0 vs model

SONNET0 eBay AU sold 90d, no buylist → no real AU demand. AU dealer prices A$483-675 EX = outliers on Exodus copies not Urza's Legacy; A$73 sell prediction entirely unsupported. Weak velocity + 0 confirmed = terminal signal.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
70
90
GOBLIN WELDER
×WRONG · SKIP
SET ulg #80GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€24.91
A$41
MODEL AU
A$73
31% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$73
+0 vs model

SONNET0 eBay AU sold comps 90d + no AU buylist → A$73 unanchored. Only AU data points = EX-condition dealer asks A$483-675 = outliers not comparable NM sold prices. Weak velocity + 0 confirmed AU sales = no evidence of liquid AU market.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
70
90
GOBLIN WELDER
×WRONG · SKIP
SET ulg #80GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€24.91
A$41
MODEL AU
A$73
31% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$73
+0 vs model

SONNETGoblin Welder ULG Legacy/Vintage staple but 0 eBay AU sold 90d + AU dealer asks A$483-675 EX = illiquid collector market. Engine A$73 NM has no AU velocity anchor; single-dealer-ask contamination risk extreme.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
70
90
GOBLIN WELDER
DERATED
SET ulg #80GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€24.91
A$41
MODEL AU
A$73
31% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$55
-18 vs model

OPUSGoblin Welder real EDH/Vintage staple but ulg printing compressed by DMR reprint (2026 Dominaria Remastered) typically flattens older printings 20-30%. 0 AU sold + only 2 in stock + weak velocity → A$48-62 fair clearing unless Vintage/Legacy catalyst.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
70
90
GOBLIN WELDER
×WRONG · SKIP
SET ulg #80GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€24.91
A$41
MODEL AU
A$73
31% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$73
+0 vs model

SONNET0 eBay AU sold 90d. Only AU dealer prices (A$483-675 EX) are outlier single-dealer asks on Exodus copies, not Urza's Legacy → A$73 NM prediction unsupported. Weak velocity + 0 confirmed AU sales = no empirical basis.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
70
90
GOBLIN WELDER
×WRONG · SKIP
SET ulg #80GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€24.91
A$41
MODEL AU
A$73
31% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$73
+0 vs model

SONNET0 eBay AU sales 90d + weak velocity + no buylist = fatal liquidity signal. AU dealer asks A$483-675 EX = single-desk stale asks on non-English-market card with zero local traffic. NM ULG Goblin Welder has tiny AU collector base.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
79
90
DISINTEGRATE
×WRONG · SKIP
SET lea #140GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€29.80
A$49
MODEL AU
A$82
24% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$82
+0 vs model

SONNETDisintegrate LEA RL common: 0 AU eBay sold 90d + no buylist. Single A$124 EX dealer = illiquid outlier not clearing price. EDHREC 15707 negligible Commander demand; A$82 extrapolated from single above-market ask with no realised-sale support.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
79
90
DISINTEGRATE
?UNVERIFIED
SET lea #140GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€29.80
A$49
MODEL AU
A$82
24% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$82
+0 vs model

SONNET0 eBay AU sold + no AU buylist → A$82 sell prediction entirely unsupported by realised AU market data. Sole AU data point (A$124 EX from single dealer) is raw ask in worse condition not cleared price.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
79
90
DISINTEGRATE
DERATED
SET lea #140GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€29.80
A$49
MODEL AU
A$82
24% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$60
-22 vs model

SONNETLEA Disintegrate RL Alpha common with real collector demand but 0 AU eBay sold 90d + weak velocity. Single A$124 EX dealer = lone illiquid ask. CM avg7d/30d (~€37) above trend (€29.80) → engine pulled depressed trend; realistic A$55-65 raw NM.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
79
90
DISINTEGRATE
DERATED
SET lea #140GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€29.80
A$49
MODEL AU
A$82
24% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$65
-17 vs model

SONNETDisintegrate LEA: RL with real scarcity (CM trend €29.80, avg30d €36.49 stable-to-strong; A$124 EX confirms AU market exists), but 0 eBay AU sold 90d + no buylist → A$82 NM speculative; weak velocity + 1 in-stock = illiquid.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
79
90
DISINTEGRATE
×WRONG · SKIP
SET lea #140GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€29.80
A$49
MODEL AU
A$82
24% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$82
+0 vs model

SONNETLEA Disintegrate RL Alpha/Beta common: 0 eBay AU sold 90d, only 1 dealer A$124 EX (single ask not market). Weak velocity + no buylist → A$82 in 120d unsupported. CM avg7/30d spread suggests trend pulled by stale outliers; LEA premium often in PSA channels.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
79
90
DISINTEGRATE
×WRONG · SKIP
SET lea #140GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€29.80
A$49
MODEL AU
A$82
24% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$82
+0 vs model

OPUSAlpha Disintegrate RL desirable old-border common; €29.80 CM trend plausible but A$82 AU clearing rests on 0 eBay sales + no AU buylist + single A$124 EX dealer ask = illiquid thin-tape, not 120d clearing signal.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
100
90
ISLAND
×WRONG · SKIP
SET leb #292GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€17.28
A$29
MODEL AU
A$52
30% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$52
+0 vs model

SONNETIsland LEB high-reprint-warning + 0 AU sold velocity → single A$92 ask = illiquid outlier. A$51.71 sell unsupported. EU buy €17.28 also well below CM trend €29.51 → likely print-variant or condition-grade mismatch in source data.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
100
90
ISLAND
DERATED
SET leb #292GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€17.28
A$29
MODEL AU
A$52
30% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$32
-20 vs model

SONNETCM avg7d €31.67 sits above engine EU buy €17.28 (engine buying stale/below-trend) but AU sell-side entirely unsupported — 0 eBay sold + no buylist. Single A$92 ask = one illiquid SKU; realistic AU clearing A$32-36 leaves margin thinner.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
100
90
ISLAND
×WRONG · SKIP
SET leb #292GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€17.28
A$29
MODEL AU
A$52
30% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$52
+0 vs model

OPUSLEB #292 basic land — Limited Edition Beta basic lands trade €25-40 raw NM on CM with effectively zero AU eBay liquidity. Single A$92 dealer = above-market outlier not clearing; 120d at A$51.71 with weak velocity + 0 sales is not real opp.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
100
90
ISLAND
×WRONG · SKIP
SET leb #292GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€17.28
A$29
MODEL AU
A$52
30% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$52
+0 vs model

SONNETLEB (Legends) basic Island RL-adjacent collectible but not Reserve List itself — 0 eBay AU sold 90d, no buylist, single A$92 dealer ask almost certainly stale slab or collector copy. A$51.71 sell = ghost price with no clearing evidence.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
100
90
ISLAND
DERATED
SET leb #292GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€17.28
A$29
MODEL AU
A$52
30% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$38
-14 vs model

SONNETLEB Island genuine collector card (Beta-era basic, RL-adjacent prestige) but 0 AU eBay sold 90d + no AU buylist → near-zero AU liquidity. Sole A$92 ask = single-dealer ceiling not clearing. A$51 achievable but only with patient capital beyond 120d.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
100
90
ISLAND
×WRONG · SKIP
SET leb #292GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€17.28
A$29
MODEL AU
A$52
30% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$52
+0 vs model

SONNETIsland LEB #292 non-foil common Basic Land — AU demand for raw essentially zero (0 eBay AU 90d, no buylist). Single A$92 dealer = stale outlier. High reprint warning + weak velocity → A$51.71 sell entirely unsupported.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
01
90
LATIAS & LATIOS-GX·FOIL
×WRONG · SKIP
SET sm9 #170GAME pokemonVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€200.28
A$330
MODEL AU
A$2355
395% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$2355
+0 vs model

SONNETZero eBay AU confirmed sales in 90 days and no buylist offers signals near-zero realised demand at any price; Good Games retail ask of A$3990-4468 reflects sticker price not clearing price, and with only 1 AU listing and weak velocity the engine's A$2354 sell prediction is a fantasy anchored on dead retail stock. A 15-year AU LGS dealer would not touch this - the card simply does not move in AU at these prices.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
01
90
LATIAS & LATIOS-GX·FOIL
×WRONG · SKIP
SET sm9 #170GAME pokemonVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€200.28
A$330
MODEL AU
A$2355
395% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$2355
+0 vs model

SONNETThe A$2354 sell prediction is implausible: 0 eBay AU confirmed sales in 90 days shows near-zero AU market liquidity, AU dealer retail of A$3990-4468 is aspirational ask pricing not clearing price, and the SM9 Tag Team GX era is out of Standard/Expanded competitive relevance reducing collector demand. The EU CM trend of E182 with weak velocity and a 120-day horizon against a single AU retail ask signals the engine extrapolated from a stale retail stub rather than realised AU sales.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
01
90
LATIAS & LATIOS-GX·FOIL
×WRONG · SKIP
SET sm9 #170GAME pokemonVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€200.28
A$330
MODEL AU
A$2355
395% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$2355
+0 vs model

OPUSEngine's A$2354 prediction is extrapolated from single-dealer Good Games asks (A$3990-4468) with zero confirmed eBay AU sales in 90d and weak velocity - classic single-dealer-ask contamination. Cardmarket avg30d E130 vs trend E182 also shows the EU side is softening, not a real opp.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
01
90
LATIAS & LATIOS-GX·FOIL
×WRONG · SKIP
SET sm9 #170GAME pokemonVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€200.28
A$330
MODEL AU
A$2355
395% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$2355
+0 vs model

SONNETZero eBay AU confirmed sales in 90 days and no AU buylist offers signal near-zero real liquidity; the single Good Games in-stock ask at A$3,990-4,468 is a single-dealer ask with no clearing evidence, and weak velocity confirms the AU market cannot absorb this card - the A$2,354 sell prediction has no transactional support. CM avg30d (E130.57) vs avg7d (E168.64) divergence also suggests recent speculative spike, further undermining the EU buy basis.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
01
90
LATIAS & LATIOS-GX·FOIL
×WRONG · SKIP
SET sm9 #170GAME pokemonVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€200.28
A$330
MODEL AU
A$2355
395% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$2355
+0 vs model

SONNETThe A$2354.85 sell prediction is derived entirely from AU dealer ask prices (A$3990-4468) with zero eBay AU confirmed sales in 90 days, meaning the engine has mistaken a single illiquid dealer's sticker price for a liquid market clearing price; with weak velocity and 0 confirmed sales, true AU realised value is unverifiable but almost certainly far below the prediction. The CM trend (E182) vs avg30d (E130) divergence also suggests the card is softening in the EU source market, compounding the engine's overstatement.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
01
90
LATIAS & LATIOS-GX·FOIL
DERATED
SET sm9 #170GAME pokemonVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€200.28
A$330
MODEL AU
A$2355
395% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$350
-2005 vs model

SONNETAU dealer retail asks A$3990-4468 confirm the card commands a real premium in AU, but 0 eBay AU sold comps in 90d and weak velocity mean actual clearing price is deeply uncertain; the engine's A$2354 sell prediction is plausible as a theoretical ceiling but likely overstates realistic 120d realisation for a thin, slow-moving tag team GX with no buylist support.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
02
90
GENGAR & MIMIKYU-GX
DERATED
SET sm9 #186GAME pokemonVEL mediumEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 2
EU ACQ
€136.33
A$225
MODEL AU
A$1179
262% ROI · 60d
·
JUDGE AU
A$350
-829 vs model
·
v2 VALUER
A$350
[A$210A$525] · width A$315

SONNETn=2 eBay AU sold with a single A$1838 data point is almost certainly a PSA slab sale contaminating the raw median - Rainbow Rares at this price point almost exclusively trade graded in AU, and a raw NM copy clears far lower. Engine's A$1178 prediction is anchored to a slab comp and the medium velocity + zero dealer stock signal thin liquidity; realistic raw NM clearing is A$300-500 over 60-90d with meaningful unsold risk.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
02
90
GENGAR & MIMIKYU-GX
DERATED
SET sm9 #186GAME pokemonVEL mediumEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 2
EU ACQ
€136.33
A$225
MODEL AU
A$1179
262% ROI · 60d
·
JUDGE AU
A$220
-959 vs model
·
v2 VALUER
A$350
[A$210A$525] · width A$315

SONNETThe AU eBay sold data is n=2 with a suspiciously high A$1838 median that is almost certainly PSA-slab contamination inflating the raw price signal - the engine's A$1178 prediction anchors heavily on this thin, likely graded-card sample. Rainbow Rare Gengar & Mimikyu-GX (SM9 #186) is a real hype card with genuine collector demand, but raw NM copies realistically clear in the A$150-300 range on AU eBay against competition from JP and US supply; the engine dramatically overshoots by treating two slab sales as the liquid raw market.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
02
90
GENGAR & MIMIKYU-GX
DERATED
SET sm9 #186GAME pokemonVEL mediumEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 2
EU ACQ
€136.33
A$225
MODEL AU
A$1179
262% ROI · 60d
·
JUDGE AU
A$750
-429 vs model
·
v2 VALUER
A$350
[A$210A$525] · width A$315

OPUSGengar & Mimikyu-GX Rainbow Rare (sm9 #186) is a genuinely valuable chase card with EU trend E124 (~A$223 landed) supporting real cost, but the A$1838 AU median is from only n=2 sales and CM 7d/30d averages (~E102-107) suggest softening; engine A$1179 prediction likely overshoots typical NM raw clearing (PSA-graded slabs likely contaminate the AU median).

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
02
90
GENGAR & MIMIKYU-GX
DERATED
SET sm9 #186GAME pokemonVEL mediumEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 2
EU ACQ
€136.33
A$225
MODEL AU
A$1179
262% ROI · 60d
·
JUDGE AU
A$1838
+659 vs model
·
v2 VALUER
A$350
[A$210A$525] · width A$315

SONNETeBay AU sold sample is n=2 with median=A$1838, which is above the engine's A$1178 prediction, but n=2 over 90d is near-zero velocity and likely includes PSA-graded slabs inflating raw sold prices for a Foil: no Rainbow Rare; engine ROI at 262% on medium velocity with zero dealer stock and no buylist offers suggests extreme illiquidity, so the sold sample cannot be taken at face value and confidence is low.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
02
90
GENGAR & MIMIKYU-GX
DERATED
SET sm9 #186GAME pokemonVEL mediumEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 2
EU ACQ
€136.33
A$225
MODEL AU
A$1179
262% ROI · 60d
·
JUDGE AU
A$350
-829 vs model
·
v2 VALUER
A$350
[A$210A$525] · width A$315

SONNETThe n=2 eBay AU sold sample with median A$1838 almost certainly includes PSA-graded slabs or exceptional condition premiums contaminating the raw price signal; the engine's A$1178 sell prediction is built on this thin, likely-contaminated median. Gengar & Mimikyu-GX Rainbow Rare is a legitimate sought card but realistic NM raw clearing in AU sits far below A$1178, closer to A$300-500 given CM trend of E124 and no buylist or dealer support.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
02
90
GENGAR & MIMIKYU-GX
DERATED
SET sm9 #186GAME pokemonVEL mediumEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 2
EU ACQ
€136.33
A$225
MODEL AU
A$1179
262% ROI · 60d
·
JUDGE AU
A$320
-859 vs model
·
v2 VALUER
A$350
[A$210A$525] · width A$315

SONNETeBay AU n=2 with both sales at A$1838 is almost certainly PSA-graded slab contamination - raw NM copies of sm9 #186 Gengar & Mimikyu-GX Rainbow Rare realistically clear in the A$200-500 range based on CM trend ~E124 and the typical AU raw premium; the engine's A$1178 sell prediction inherits an inflated median from a vanishingly thin, almost certainly graded-only sample and overstates by 2-4x.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
03
90
ARCEUS & DIALGA & PALKIA-GX·FOIL
CONFIRMED
SET sm12 #221GAME pokemonVEL mediumEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 4
EU ACQ
€111.60
A$184
MODEL AU
A$820
206% ROI · 60d
·
JUDGE AU
A$820
0 vs model

SONNETeBay AU sold sample (n=4, median A$801, max A$919) and Good Games dealer stock (A$911-A$944) both triangulate tightly around the engine's A$820 sell prediction; Cardmarket avg7d E94.18 supports the EU buy at E111.60 as plausible (trend is higher at E101.45). Low AU supply (1 in stock) and medium velocity with no buylist offers are consistent with a real but illiquid opportunity at the engine's price point.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
03
90
ARCEUS & DIALGA & PALKIA-GX·FOIL
DERATED
SET sm12 #221GAME pokemonVEL mediumEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 4
EU ACQ
€111.60
A$184
MODEL AU
A$820
206% ROI · 60d
·
JUDGE AU
A$820
0 vs model

SONNETeBay AU n=4 over 90d is thin (medium velocity) and Good Games in-stock at A$911-944 suggests retail ceiling is real, but the engine's A$820 prediction sits plausibly within the sold range (median A$801, max A$919); primary risk is that 5 GG units in stock plus low undercut signal slow clearing, and a single outlier sale (A$919) may inflate the median - derate slightly to reflect realistic clearance below retail ceiling with illiquidity drag.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
03
90
ARCEUS & DIALGA & PALKIA-GX·FOIL
CONFIRMED
SET sm12 #221GAME pokemonVEL mediumEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 4
EU ACQ
€111.60
A$184
MODEL AU
A$820
206% ROI · 60d
·
JUDGE AU
A$800
-20 vs model

OPUSADP-GX (SM12 #221, Rainbow Rare) is a chase card with strong format/collector demand; eBay AU sold n=4 median A$801 plus 5 dealer asks A$911-944 corroborate engine's ~A$820 prediction. Thin liquidity (1 in stock, n=4 sold/90d) is the main risk, but price level is plausible.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
03
90
ARCEUS & DIALGA & PALKIA-GX·FOIL
DERATED
SET sm12 #221GAME pokemonVEL mediumEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 4
EU ACQ
€111.60
A$184
MODEL AU
A$820
206% ROI · 60d
·
JUDGE AU
A$680
-140 vs model

SONNETADP-GX sm12 #221 is a genuine chase card with strong AU dealer pricing (A$911-944) and thin eBay AU sold depth (n=4), but the engine's A$820 sell prediction is inflated by PSA-slab contamination risk in a 4-sale sample and single-dealer ask anchoring; realistic NM raw clearing price is closer to A$650-700 given the wide bid-ask spread and no AU buylist interest. Medium velocity with only 1 competing AU listing is promising but insufficient to trust the full A$820 projection.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
03
90
ARCEUS & DIALGA & PALKIA-GX·FOIL
DERATED
SET sm12 #221GAME pokemonVEL mediumEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 4
EU ACQ
€111.60
A$184
MODEL AU
A$820
206% ROI · 60d
·
JUDGE AU
A$780
-40 vs model

SONNETADP-GX sm12 #221 is the alternate-art secret rare - eBay AU n=4 median A$801 and Good Games in-stock at A$911-944 are internally consistent and suggest a real liquid market, but the engine's A$820 prediction is reasonable while its 206% ROI headline is based on an EU buy trend (E101) that has been compressing (avg30d E90), and medium velocity + only 1 AU listing means clearing risk is meaningful; a veteran would shade the clearing price 5-10% off Good Games retail and treat this as a real but execution-sensitive position, not a layup.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
03
90
ARCEUS & DIALGA & PALKIA-GX·FOIL
CONFIRMED
SET sm12 #221GAME pokemonVEL mediumEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 4
EU ACQ
€111.60
A$184
MODEL AU
A$820
206% ROI · 60d
·
JUDGE AU
A$820
0 vs model

SONNETAU dealer in-stock at A$911-944 and eBay AU 90d median A$801 (n=4, max A$919) both sit well above the engine's A$820 sell prediction, confirming price level; only cautions are thin eBay velocity (n=4) and no buylist depth, consistent with medium velocity and low undercut in a thinly-stocked market.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
04
90
DEOXYS-EX·FOIL
DERATED
SET bw9 #111GAME pokemonVEL mediumEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 2
EU ACQ
€44.15
A$73
MODEL AU
A$497
367% ROI · 60d
·
JUDGE AU
A$250
-247 vs model
·
v2 VALUER
A$265
[A$180A$350] · width A$170

SONNETGood Games AU dealer stock at A$804 and 2 eBay AU sold at A$610 median confirm genuine AU demand well above landed cost, but the 90d CM avg30d of E17.19 vs trend of E40.14 suggests strong recent spike with thin buy-side depth, and n=2 eBay sold is too sparse to anchor a A$496 prediction reliably; a realistic 60d clearing price of A$250 is more defensible given medium velocity and single AU listing.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
04
90
DEOXYS-EX·FOIL
DERATED
SET bw9 #111GAME pokemonVEL mediumEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 2
EU ACQ
€44.15
A$73
MODEL AU
A$497
367% ROI · 60d
·
JUDGE AU
A$350
-147 vs model
·
v2 VALUER
A$265
[A$180A$350] · width A$170

SONNETeBay AU n=2 is too thin to anchor at A$496; median sold A$610 and Good Games retail A$804 suggest genuine demand, but avg30d CME17.19 vs trendE40 signals recent EU price spike with shallow depth, making engine's A$496 plausible directionally but likely overshooting the realistic clearing band. DERATED to ~A$350 p50 given thin AU sold sample, no buylist support, and low velocity.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
04
90
DEOXYS-EX·FOIL
DERATED
SET bw9 #111GAME pokemonVEL mediumEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 2
EU ACQ
€44.15
A$73
MODEL AU
A$497
367% ROI · 60d
·
JUDGE AU
A$280
-217 vs model
·
v2 VALUER
A$265
[A$180A$350] · width A$170

SONNETDeoxys-EX (BW9 #111) eBay AU sample is razor-thin (n=2, single sale at A$610) and the 30d CM avg of E17.19 vs trend E40.14 signals price is still settling after a spike - the engine is anchoring on the high outlier rather than the trend; Good Games pricing at A$804 is retail ceiling not clearing price, and with only 1 AU listing and medium velocity this will likely clear in the A$200-380 range for a raw NM copy, making the A$496 prediction a significant overshoot.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
04
90
DEOXYS-EX·FOIL
DERATED
SET bw9 #111GAME pokemonVEL mediumEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 2
EU ACQ
€44.15
A$73
MODEL AU
A$497
367% ROI · 60d
·
JUDGE AU
A$120
-377 vs model
·
v2 VALUER
A$265
[A$180A$350] · width A$170

OPUSDeoxys-EX 111/116 (Plasma Blast secret rare) has genuine collector demand, but engine A$496 leans on n=2 eBay sold + a single Good Games ask of A$804 - both thin, with CM trend E40 and avg30d E17 suggesting true market closer to A$80-180; opp likely real but ROI materially overstated.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
04
90
DEOXYS-EX·FOIL
×WRONG · SKIP
SET bw9 #111GAME pokemonVEL mediumEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 2
EU ACQ
€44.15
A$73
MODEL AU
A$497
367% ROI · 60d
·
JUDGE AU
A$497
+0 vs model
·
v2 VALUER
A$265
[A$180A$350] · width A$170

SONNETThe AU sell prediction of A$496 is anchored on only 2 eBay sold comps (n=2, median A$610) over 90 days - an extremely thin sample that is almost certainly contaminated by PSA-graded slabs or exceptional condition copies, not raw NM. The Cardmarket data shows a severe avg30d (E17.19) vs trend (E40.14) divergence suggesting active price collapse or variant conflation; Deoxys-EX BW9 #111 is a mid-era EX-block full-art that has been reprinted/redistributed and does not hold the premium the engine projects in AU at current volumes.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
04
90
DEOXYS-EX·FOIL
×WRONG · SKIP
SET bw9 #111GAME pokemonVEL mediumEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 2
EU ACQ
€44.15
A$73
MODEL AU
A$497
367% ROI · 60d
·
JUDGE AU
A$497
+0 vs model
·
v2 VALUER
A$265
[A$180A$350] · width A$170

SONNETThe CM data is self-contradictory and deeply suspect: avg7d=E31.74 vs avg30d=E17.19 with a trend=E40.14 suggests either print-variant conflation (multiple Deoxys-EX printings in BW9 region or promo variants) or volatile low-liquidity noise - not a stable E44 floor. The AU eBay sold sample is n=2 with median=A$610 likely contaminated by PSA-graded slabs or sealed-lot sales, while the AU dealer stack of five identical Good Games listings at A$804 reads as a single stale dealer ask artificially inflating the market, and the no-buylist-offers signal means no real wholesale demand exists to anchor the A$496 sell prediction.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
05
90
ROCKET'S ZAPDOS EX·FOIL
DERATED
SET ex7 #106GAME pokemonVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€86.60
A$143
MODEL AU
A$658
217% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$180
-478 vs model

SONNETZero AU eBay sold in 90 days and no buylist offers signal near-zero liquidity, making the A$658 sell prediction implausible at any realistic hold horizon; the single Mana Market ask at A$1061 (EX) is a graded-slab contamination artifact, not a raw NM benchmark, and CM avg30d of E59.54 vs avg7d of E70.28 suggests recent speculative run-up rather than organic demand, so a realistic NM raw AU clearing price of ~A$150-250 is plausible but only with patient capital and thin market risk.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
05
90
ROCKET'S ZAPDOS EX·FOIL
×WRONG · SKIP
SET ex7 #106GAME pokemonVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€86.60
A$143
MODEL AU
A$658
217% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$658
+0 vs model

SONNETZero confirmed AU eBay sales in 90 days with only 1 unit in stock (likely the Mana Market A$1061 slab-or-EX listing) is a dead liquidity signal; the engine's A$658 prediction almost certainly inherits from a PSA-graded or EX-condition outlier inflating the AU price anchor, and weak velocity on a E70-80 CM card with a steep 30d downtrend (E59->E70->E78 avg compressing toward trend) makes a 120-day clearing at 4x EU cost implausible for a raw NM copy in the AU market.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
05
90
ROCKET'S ZAPDOS EX·FOIL
×WRONG · SKIP
SET ex7 #106GAME pokemonVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€86.60
A$143
MODEL AU
A$658
217% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$658
+0 vs model

SONNETZero eBay AU confirmed sales in 90d and no buylist offers means A$658 sell prediction has no empirical anchor; the sole AU dealer data point is a single ask at A$1061 (EX condition, not NM), which is a one-dealer illiquid signal that cannot support a liquid clearing price. With weak velocity, low undercount (1 in stock), and CM avg7d (E70) already below trend (E78), there is no triangulated evidence this card clears anywhere near the engine's A$658 figure within 120d.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
05
90
ROCKET'S ZAPDOS EX·FOIL
×WRONG · SKIP
SET ex7 #106GAME pokemonVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€86.60
A$143
MODEL AU
A$658
217% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$658
+0 vs model

SONNETZero eBay AU confirmed sales in 90d combined with weak velocity indicates no demonstrated AU clearing demand at any price; the A$658 sell prediction is almost certainly a foil-column inversion artefact (Rare Holo EX CM row pulling wrong column) inflating the EU buy cost and AU target simultaneously, making the entire spread fictional. With a single AU dealer ask at A$1061 and no sold comps, there is no reliable AU price anchor.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
05
90
ROCKET'S ZAPDOS EX·FOIL
×WRONG · SKIP
SET ex7 #106GAME pokemonVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€86.60
A$143
MODEL AU
A$658
217% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$658
+0 vs model

OPUSRocket's Zapdos ex is a 2004 EX Team Rocket Returns Rare Holo EX where the engine's A$658 AU sell prediction is implausible - single dealer ask at A$1061 is a thin-market outlier, CM trend E78 with declining 7d/30d averages signals weak demand, and zero eBay AU sold in 90d means no realised clearing price supports this magnitude; classic Pokemon EX-era foil-column inversion / illiquid-ask contamination pattern.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
05
90
ROCKET'S ZAPDOS EX·FOIL
×WRONG · SKIP
SET ex7 #106GAME pokemonVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€86.60
A$143
MODEL AU
A$658
217% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$658
+0 vs model

SONNETThe A$658 sell prediction is unsupported: zero eBay AU sold comps in 90 days signals near-zero AU liquidity, and the sole AU data point is a single dealer ask (Mana Market A$1061 EX) that almost certainly inflates the model's AU price anchor - classic single-dealer-ask masquerading as market. Cardmarket trend/avg divergence (E78 trend vs E59 avg30d) also suggests the EU buy price is already running hot on thin recent volume.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
BUY GLOBALLY · SELL AU
○ MTGARB ⁄ VERDICTS ⁄ ARCHIVE-26