2026, 8:00:03 AM ↓ csv

Modelling assumptions (calibrated from research 2026-05-07)

EU buy price: GREATEST(avg7, trend) × 1.10 from Cardmarket Price Guide. The +10% uplift compensates for the documented bias — per CM API docs, all averages blend non-English and EX-condition listings, understating true NM-EN buyable price. Reserved List cards get an additional +10% uplift (older-card bias is larger). Floor at €0.50.
Shipping: €1.20/card amortised (post-2026 UPU rules; 20–50 card consolidated parcel; tracked). GST 10% on (price + shipping) × FX. Duty 0% (HS 9504.40 trading cards).
FX: ECB EUR/AUD × (1 − fx_spread_pct). Default Wise spread 0.5%.
AU sell price (multi-signal, in priority order):

eBay AU sold median — when ≥5 sold records exist for the card+foil in last 90d. Real transactions, gold standard.
Dealer cheapest ask × velocity-aware ratio — strong velocity = 0.92, medium = 0.80, weak = 0.65. Foils −0.03. Velocity-first reframe: if there's evidence the card moves, you'll clear at near-dealer prices (just undercutting slightly). No demand evidence = empirical pessimism (the 0.65 fallback).
Buylist-as-floor cross-check — when dealer-ratio is used but a buylist offer exists, implied clearing = buylist / 0.55. If signals disagree by ≥30%, average them.

Velocity category drives the ratio AND the score weight:

strong — eBay sold ≥5/90d OR active buylist OR EDHREC top-500. Score weight 1.0.
medium — eBay sold ≥2/90d OR EDHREC top-2000. Score weight 0.7.
weak — no demand signals; speculative. Score weight 0.4.

Undercut risk (count of competing in-stock AU listings for the same card+foil):

low — ≤2 competing listings. No score penalty.
medium — 3–5 listings. −5% score penalty.
high — 6+ listings. −15% score penalty (price-chase risk).

Score formula: profit × velocity_weight × (1 − undercut_penalty) (replaces the older profit × √(velocity × liquidity)).Illiquidity: base 10% × (1 − x) of effective sell price (moderate risk profile) + 10% extra for cards selling above A$150 (slow-clearing high-value tier).
Channel fees: mtg_mate_retail 15%, ebay_au 15%, mtg_mate_buylist 0%. (15% blends ~13% eBay AU FVF + 5–10% promoted-listings cost − partial offset for unpromoted listings — conservative.) Sell-days: buylist 7, retail 60, eBay 45.
Holding cost: landed × 8% annual × (sell_days/365).
Counterfeit risk: 2% baseline, +3% if >€100, +5% if >€300, +5% Reserved List, +1% private seller >€50.
Sanity filters: drop EU price < €0.50, drop ROI > 500%, drop sell:cost ratio > 8.
Time horizon: the scan config's timeHorizonDays is informational only — it does not filter the leaderboard. Use the days column to spot opps slower than your tolerance.
Annualised ROI: simple — roi × 365 / sell_days. Upper bound; real friction (eBay payout holds, dead stock, capital downtime) typically caps realised at 50–70% of this.
Freshness warning: a card's most-recent reprint compresses prices for 6–12 months as supply lands. Levels: high (reprinted <90d), medium (90–365d), low (1–2y), none (>2y or never). Informational, not used in scoring.
Reality not in the model:

Multi-seller buy on Cardmarket — €1.20/card amortised assumes one bundled parcel; in practice a 100-card buy splits across 8–15 sellers, each charging €1–€8 minimum shipping. True cost is 20–40% higher than modelled.
eBay AU sample size — for cards without ≥5 recent sold records, sell price uses the empirical dealer×ratio fallback. Watchlist coverage is currently ~20 cards; expand via scan:ebay-au-diy to firm up estimates.
Operations time, returns rate, payout holds, reprint/ban events, FX volatility, counterfeit fat-tails — all real, none modelled.

Hover over any row to see the per-opportunity math breakdown.

Opportunities

Total expected profit

A$1476

Total landed cost

A$1999

Avg ROI

89.7%

FX (EUR/AUD)

1.6178

#	Card	Set	Spec	Source	Velocity	Undercut	EU €	Landed A$	Sell A$	Channel	Days	Profit A$	ROI	Annual	Reprint
1	Juggernaut	lea	NM/en slow-tier	🌐 tcgplayer	weak	low (1)	127.77	229.50	680.68	mtg_mate_retail	120	273.70	119.3%	363%	low +log
2	Riding the Dilu Horse	ptk	NM/en slow-tier	mtgjson_cm	weak	low (1)	197.23	353.12	829.45	mtg_mate_retail	120	254.47	72.1%	219%	none +log
3	Lady Sun	ptk	NM/en slow-tier	🌐 tcgplayer	weak	low (1)	23.30	43.59	163.19	mtg_mate_retail	120	79.89	183.3%	557%	none +log
4	Chrome Mox	mrd	NM/en slow-tier	mtgjson_cm	strong	high (7)	60.73	110.21	193.78	ebay_au	45	34.75	31.5%	256%	low +log
5	Library of Leng	lea	NM/en slow-tier	mtgjson_cm	weak	low (1)	100.69	181.32	350.45	mtg_mate_retail	120	72.94	40.2%	122%	low +log
6	Warrior's Oath	ptk	NM/en slow-tier	mtgjson_cm	weak	low (1)	56.76	103.14	228.14	mtg_mate_retail	120	66.61	64.6%	196%	none +log
7	Cursed Land	lea	NM/en slow-tier	mtgjson_cm	weak	low (1)	49.30	89.87	205.61	mtg_mate_retail	120	63.26	70.4%	214%	none +log
8	Wrath of God	3ed	NM/en	mtgjson_cm	medium	high (14)	6.70	14.06	65.20	ebay_au	45	41.15	292.7%	2374%	none +log
9	Wort, Boggart Auntie	lrw	NM/en	mtgjson_cm	strong	high (10)	6.98	14.56	45.60	ebay_au	45	23.99	164.8%	1337%	none +log
10	Hua Tuo, Honored Physician	ptk	NM/en	mtgjson_cm	weak	low (1)	17.82	33.85	88.21	mtg_mate_retail	120	40.07	118.4%	360%	none +log
11	Lu Bu, Master-at-Arms	ptk	NM/en	mtgjson_cm	weak	low (1)	21.43	40.27	95.58	mtg_mate_retail	120	39.71	98.6%	300%	none +log
12	Avacyn, Angel of Hope	phel	NM/en	mtgjson_cm	strong	medium (3)	9.38	18.83	41.04	ebay_au	45	15.78	83.8%	680%	low +log
13	Wanderlust	lea	NM/en	🌐 tcgplayer	weak	low (1)	32.33	59.66	117.43	mtg_mate_retail	120	37.39	62.7%	191%	none +log
14	Jade Monolith	leb	NM/en	mtgjson_cm	weak	low (1)	42.32	77.45	136.73	mtg_mate_retail	120	35.19	45.4%	138%	none +log
15	Slashing Tiger	ptk	NM/en	mtgjson_cm	weak	low (2)	19.35	36.57	85.48	mtg_mate_retail	120	34.94	95.5%	291%	none +log
16	Black Ward	lea	NM/en	mtgjson_cm	weak	low (1)	18.11	34.36	81.25	mtg_mate_retail	120	33.62	97.8%	298%	none +log
17	Fog	lea	NM/en	mtgjson_cm	weak	low (1)	17.11	32.58	78.73	mtg_mate_retail	120	33.32	102.3%	311%	low +log
18	Red Ward	lea	NM/en	mtgjson_cm	weak	low (1)	19.07	36.07	82.88	mtg_mate_retail	120	33.24	92.2%	280%	none +log
19	Sun Ce, Young Conquerer	ptk	NM/en	mtgjson_cm	weak	low (1)	25.91	48.24	96.69	mtg_mate_retail	120	32.43	67.2%	204%	none +log
20	Camouflage	lea	NM/en	🌐 tcgplayer	weak	low (1)	36.63	67.31	120.75	mtg_mate_retail	120	32.21	47.8%	146%	none +log
21	Craw Wurm	lea	NM/en	mtgjson_cm	weak	low (1)	26.76	49.76	97.50	mtg_mate_retail	120	31.56	63.4%	193%	none +log
22	Dingus Egg	leb	NM/en	🌐 tcgplayer	weak	low (1)	45.89	83.79	139.76	mtg_mate_retail	120	31.13	37.1%	113%	none +log
23	Zhang Liao, Hero of Hefei	ptk	NM/en	mtgjson_cm	weak	low (1)	11.31	22.26	63.38	mtg_mate_retail	120	30.92	138.9%	422%	none +log
24	Karma	lea	NM/en	🌐 tcgplayer	weak	low (1)	42.26	77.33	130.00	mtg_mate_retail	120	29.59	38.3%	116%	none +log
25	Borrowing the East Wind	ptk	NM/en	mtgjson_cm	weak	low (2)	28.20	52.32	97.50	mtg_mate_retail	120	28.92	55.3%	168%	none +log
26	Zhang He, Wei General	ptk	NM/en	mtgjson_cm	weak	low (1)	38.17	70.06	119.10	mtg_mate_retail	120	27.93	39.9%	121%	none +log
27	Black Market	clb	NM/en	mtgjson_cm	strong	medium (3)	3.54	8.44	22.55	ebay_au	45	10.61	125.8%	1020%	none +log
28	Counterbalance	csp	NM/en	mtgjson_cm	strong	high (9)	4.51	10.16	16.47	mtg_mate_buylist	7	6.24	61.4%	3203%	low +log