2026, 10:30:03 AM ↓ csv

Modelling assumptions (calibrated from research 2026-05-07)

EU buy price: GREATEST(avg7, trend) × 1.10 from Cardmarket Price Guide. The +10% uplift compensates for the documented bias — per CM API docs, all averages blend non-English and EX-condition listings, understating true NM-EN buyable price. Reserved List cards get an additional +10% uplift (older-card bias is larger). Floor at €0.50.
Shipping: €1.20/card amortised (post-2026 UPU rules; 20–50 card consolidated parcel; tracked). GST 10% on (price + shipping) × FX. Duty 0% (HS 9504.40 trading cards).
FX: ECB EUR/AUD × (1 − fx_spread_pct). Default Wise spread 0.5%.
AU sell price (multi-signal, in priority order):

eBay AU sold median — when ≥5 sold records exist for the card+foil in last 90d. Real transactions, gold standard.
Dealer cheapest ask × velocity-aware ratio — strong velocity = 0.92, medium = 0.80, weak = 0.65. Foils −0.03. Velocity-first reframe: if there's evidence the card moves, you'll clear at near-dealer prices (just undercutting slightly). No demand evidence = empirical pessimism (the 0.65 fallback).
Buylist-as-floor cross-check — when dealer-ratio is used but a buylist offer exists, implied clearing = buylist / 0.55. If signals disagree by ≥30%, average them.

Velocity category drives the ratio AND the score weight:

strong — eBay sold ≥5/90d OR active buylist OR EDHREC top-500. Score weight 1.0.
medium — eBay sold ≥2/90d OR EDHREC top-2000. Score weight 0.7.
weak — no demand signals; speculative. Score weight 0.4.

Undercut risk (count of competing in-stock AU listings for the same card+foil):

low — ≤2 competing listings. No score penalty.
medium — 3–5 listings. −5% score penalty.
high — 6+ listings. −15% score penalty (price-chase risk).

Score formula: profit × velocity_weight × (1 − undercut_penalty) (replaces the older profit × √(velocity × liquidity)).Illiquidity: base 10% × (1 − x) of effective sell price (moderate risk profile) + 10% extra for cards selling above A$150 (slow-clearing high-value tier).
Channel fees: mtg_mate_retail 15%, ebay_au 15%, mtg_mate_buylist 0%. (15% blends ~13% eBay AU FVF + 5–10% promoted-listings cost − partial offset for unpromoted listings — conservative.) Sell-days: buylist 7, retail 60, eBay 45.
Holding cost: landed × 8% annual × (sell_days/365).
Counterfeit risk: 2% baseline, +3% if >€100, +5% if >€300, +5% Reserved List, +1% private seller >€50.
Sanity filters: drop EU price < €0.50, drop ROI > 500%, drop sell:cost ratio > 8.
Time horizon: the scan config's timeHorizonDays is informational only — it does not filter the leaderboard. Use the days column to spot opps slower than your tolerance.
Annualised ROI: simple — roi × 365 / sell_days. Upper bound; real friction (eBay payout holds, dead stock, capital downtime) typically caps realised at 50–70% of this.
Freshness warning: a card's most-recent reprint compresses prices for 6–12 months as supply lands. Levels: high (reprinted <90d), medium (90–365d), low (1–2y), none (>2y or never). Informational, not used in scoring.
Reality not in the model:

Multi-seller buy on Cardmarket — €1.20/card amortised assumes one bundled parcel; in practice a 100-card buy splits across 8–15 sellers, each charging €1–€8 minimum shipping. True cost is 20–40% higher than modelled.
eBay AU sample size — for cards without ≥5 recent sold records, sell price uses the empirical dealer×ratio fallback. Watchlist coverage is currently ~20 cards; expand via scan:ebay-au-diy to firm up estimates.
Operations time, returns rate, payout holds, reprint/ban events, FX volatility, counterfeit fat-tails — all real, none modelled.

Hover over any row to see the per-opportunity math breakdown.

Opportunities

Total expected profit

A$1559

Total landed cost

A$2000

Avg ROI

98.7%

FX (EUR/AUD)

1.6138

#	Card	Set	Spec	Source	Velocity	Undercut	EU €	Landed A$	Sell A$	Channel	Days	Profit A$	ROI	Annual	Reprint
1	Juggernaut	lea	NM/en slow-tier	🌐 tcgplayer	weak	low (1)	128.08	229.50	681.62	mtg_mate_retail	120	274.42	119.6%	364%	low +log
2	Riding the Dilu Horse	ptk	NM/en slow-tier	mtgjson_cm	weak	low (1)	197.23	352.25	826.78	mtg_mate_retail	120	253.36	71.9%	219%	none +log
3	Gemstone Caverns	tsp	NM/en foil slow-tier	mtgjson_cm	strong	low (2)	96.67	173.74	332.86	mtg_mate_retail	60	75.14	43.3%	263%	medium +log
4	Chrome Mox	mrd	NM/en slow-tier	mtgjson_cm	strong	high (7)	60.73	109.94	240.67	mtg_mate_retail	60	70.53	64.2%	390%	low +log
5	The Ozolith	iko	NM/en	mtgjson_cm	strong	low (1)	31.91	58.78	128.79	mtg_mate_retail	60	48.75	82.9%	505%	none +log
6	Cover of Darkness	ons	NM/en foil	mtgjson_cm	medium	low (1)	24.88	46.30	132.97	mtg_mate_retail	60	65.89	142.3%	866%	low +log
7	Three Visits	ptk	NM/en	mtgjson_cm	strong	low (2)	24.33	45.32	108.19	mtg_mate_retail	60	45.82	101.1%	615%	high +log
8	Skullclamp	dst	NM/en foil	mtgjson_cm	strong	low (1)	38.66	70.76	136.70	mtg_mate_retail	60	43.09	60.9%	370%	medium +log
9	Scalding Tarn	zen	NM/en foil	mtgjson_cm	strong	low (1)	33.76	62.06	125.35	mtg_mate_retail	60	42.43	68.4%	416%	low +log
10	Sensei's Divining Top	v09	NM/en	mtgjson_cm	strong	low (1)	22.97	42.91	97.75	mtg_mate_retail	60	39.40	91.8%	559%	low +log
11	The Ozolith	iko	NM/en	mtgjson_cm	strong	low (1)	36.69	67.26	125.76	mtg_mate_retail	60	37.41	55.6%	338%	none +log
12	Manamorphose	shm	NM/en foil	mtgjson_cm	weak	low (1)	12.72	24.71	134.28	mtg_mate_retail	120	88.65	358.8%	1091%	low +log
13	Idyllic Tutor	mor	NM/en foil	mtgjson_cm	medium	low (1)	21.65	40.56	106.62	mtg_mate_retail	60	49.33	121.6%	740%	low +log
14	Fog	lea	NM/en	mtgjson_cm	medium	low (1)	17.11	32.50	96.90	mtg_mate_retail	60	49.27	151.6%	922%	low +log
15	Watery Grave	rav	NM/en foil slow-tier	mtgjson_cm	strong	low (2)	53.63	97.33	174.52	mtg_mate_retail	60	32.95	33.9%	206%	medium +log
16	Demonic Tutor	sta	NM/en	mtgjson_cm	strong	low (1)	49.93	90.76	148.12	mtg_mate_retail	60	32.13	35.4%	215%	none +log
17	Lady Sun	ptk	NM/en slow-tier	🌐 tcgplayer	weak	low (1)	23.35	43.59	163.42	mtg_mate_retail	120	80.06	183.7%	559%	none +log
18	Akroma's Memorial	m13	NM/en foil	mtgjson_cm	medium	low (1)	23.64	44.10	104.49	mtg_mate_retail	60	43.92	99.6%	606%	low +log
19	Crucible of Worlds	5dn	NM/en foil	mtgjson_cm	medium	low (1)	34.77	63.85	128.44	mtg_mate_retail	60	43.20	67.7%	412%	none +log
20	Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth	plc	NM/en foil slow-tier	mtgjson_cm	strong	low (1)	77.05	138.91	225.89	mtg_mate_retail	60	29.29	21.1%	128%	low +log
21	Warrior's Oath	ptk	NM/en slow-tier	mtgjson_cm	weak	low (1)	56.76	102.89	233.92	mtg_mate_retail	120	71.29	69.3%	211%	none +log
22	Passionate Archaeologist	clb	NM/en foil	mtgjson_cm	medium	low (1)	31.07	57.28	111.00	mtg_mate_retail	60	35.17	61.4%	373%	none +log
23	Elspeth, Knight-Errant	ddf	NM/en foil	mtgjson_cm	weak	low (1)	1.32	4.47	14.12	mtg_mate_retail	120	7.39	165.2%	503%	none +log