mtgarbbuy globally → sell AU · MTG + Pokémon
VERDICTS
2026·05·16 ⁄ 60 OPPS ⁄ 0 BUNDLE
ɴ confirmed
03
ɴ derated
16
ɴ skip
38
ɴ pending
03
claude-opus-4-7
10
⁄ 60
POLLUTED DELTA
◉CONFIRMED
SET ons #321GAME magicVEL strongEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 5
EU ACQ
€69.05
≈ A$114
→
MODEL AU
A$200
19% ROI · 60d
·
JUDGE AU
A$195
-5 vs model

OPUSPolluted Delta ONS — RL-adjacent fetchland with deep eternal demand. CM trend ~€65, AU sold median A$191, dealer NM A$188-206 brackets A$200 cleanly.

＋ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
＋ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
10
⁄ 60
POLLUTED DELTA
◐DERATED
SET ons #321GAME magicVEL strongEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 5
EU ACQ
€69.05
≈ A$114
→
MODEL AU
A$200
19% ROI · 60d
·
JUDGE AU
A$185
-15 vs model

SONNETeBay AU n=5 is thin and the max of A$243 likely inflates the engine A$200 sell; dealer NM stock A$188-206 + median A$191 → clearing A$180-190 after undercut.

＋ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
＋ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
10
⁄ 60
POLLUTED DELTA
◉CONFIRMED
SET ons #321GAME magicVEL strongEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 5
EU ACQ
€69.05
≈ A$114
→
MODEL AU
A$200
19% ROI · 60d
·
JUDGE AU
A$200
0 vs model

SONNETONS Polluted Delta dealer NM stock A$188-233, eBay sold median A$191 max A$243 — supports A$200 target; thin volume (n=5) caps conviction.

＋ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
＋ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
10
⁄ 60
POLLUTED DELTA
◐DERATED
SET ons #321GAME magicVEL strongEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 5
EU ACQ
€69.05
≈ A$114
→
MODEL AU
A$200
19% ROI · 60d
·
JUDGE AU
A$185
-15 vs model

SONNETReal liquid EDH staple but engine A$200 overshoots: n=5 skews median up, 6 in-stock + Ronin A$173 EX → NM clears A$180-190 with undercut drag.

＋ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
＋ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
10
⁄ 60
POLLUTED DELTA
◐DERATED
SET ons #321GAME magicVEL strongEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 5
EU ACQ
€69.05
≈ A$114
→
MODEL AU
A$200
19% ROI · 60d
·
JUDGE AU
A$191
-9 vs model

SONNETeBay AU sold median (n=5, A$191) and dealer NM asks cluster A$188-A$206, both below engine A$200; 6 dealers create undercut compression toward A$191.

＋ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
＋ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
10
⁄ 60
POLLUTED DELTA
◐DERATED
SET ons #321GAME magicVEL strongEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 5
EU ACQ
€69.05
≈ A$114
→
MODEL AU
A$200
19% ROI · 60d
·
JUDGE AU
A$185
-15 vs model

SONNETLegacy/Vintage staple + EDHREC-38; eBay n=5 over 90d thin, median A$191 below engine A$200, dealer NM A$188-233 with 6 in-stock undercut → A$180-190 realistic.

＋ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
＋ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
28
⁄ 60
PURELACE
×WRONG · SKIP
SET leb #33GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€60.49
≈ A$100
→
MODEL AU
A$193
30% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$193
+0 vs model

SONNETPurelace LEB is RL but EDHREC 30079 = near-zero demand; 0 AU sold 90d, single dealer ask A$495 not a liquid market; CM avg30d €87.52 vs avg7d €63.66 → sharp deflation.

＋ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
＋ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
28
⁄ 60
PURELACE
×WRONG · SKIP
SET leb #33GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€60.49
≈ A$100
→
MODEL AU
A$193
30% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$193
+0 vs model

OPUSPurelace LEB: RL, near-zero playable demand (EDHREC 30079, near-dead). Lone A$495 ask is single-dealer aspirational not liquid market — 0 eBay AU sales 90d, no buylist confirm no clearing channel.

＋ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
＋ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
28
⁄ 60
PURELACE
×WRONG · SKIP
SET leb #33GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€60.49
≈ A$100
→
MODEL AU
A$193
30% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$193
+0 vs model

SONNETPurelace LEB: RL, 0 AU sold 90d, no buylist, EDHREC 30079 — near-zero Commander demand. Single A$495 dealer ask is one illiquid anchor; CM avg30d €87 vs avg7d €63 signals deflation.

＋ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
＋ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
28
⁄ 60
PURELACE
×WRONG · SKIP
SET leb #33GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€60.49
≈ A$100
→
MODEL AU
A$193
30% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$193
+0 vs model

SONNET0 AU eBay sales 90d, no buylist → no liquid AU demand. Single A$495 dealer ask = isolated illiquid ask; CM avg7d/avg30d gap signals EU compression; A$192 has no triangulating support.

＋ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
＋ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
28
⁄ 60
PURELACE
×WRONG · SKIP
SET leb #33GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€60.49
≈ A$100
→
MODEL AU
A$193
30% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$193
+0 vs model

SONNETPurelace LEB: RL but EDHREC 30079, 0 AU eBay sold 90d, no buylist, single A$495 dealer ask is stale single-dealer artifact. A$192 sell prediction has no support.

＋ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
＋ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
28
⁄ 60
PURELACE
×WRONG · SKIP
SET leb #33GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€60.49
≈ A$100
→
MODEL AU
A$193
30% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$193
+0 vs model

SONNETPurelace LEB — RL mono-white junk rare, EDHREC ~30k zero Commander demand, 0 AU eBay sales 90d. Single A$495 ask = stale collector price; CM avg30d €87 vs avg7d €63 → recent drop. Engine A$192 = data artefact.

＋ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
＋ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
37
⁄ 60
WALL OF SWORDS
×WRONG · SKIP
SET lea #42GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€27.12
≈ A$45
→
MODEL AU
A$91
51% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$91
+0 vs model

SONNETWall of Swords LEA RL uncommon, 0 AU sold 90d, no buylist, single A$245 dealer ask is illiquid outlier. CM avg30d €77 vs avg7d €43 vs trend €34 — sharp collapse; EDHREC 19728 negligible demand.

＋ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
＋ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
37
⁄ 60
WALL OF SWORDS
×WRONG · SKIP
SET lea #42GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€27.12
≈ A$45
→
MODEL AU
A$91
51% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$91
+0 vs model

SONNETWall of Swords LEA #42: 0 AU sold 90d, EDHREC 19728 negligible. Single A$245 dealer = isolated stale outlier; CM avg30d €77 vs trend €34 → 30d distorted by spikes. A$91 unsupported.

＋ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
＋ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
37
⁄ 60
WALL OF SWORDS
×WRONG · SKIP
SET lea #42GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€27.12
≈ A$45
→
MODEL AU
A$91
51% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$91
+0 vs model

SONNETLEA Wall of Swords: 0 AU sales 90d, no buylist, EDHREC ~20k = effectively no AU retail demand. 30d CM €77 vs trend €34 = sharp collapse; A$245 dealer ask is illiquid placeholder.

＋ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
＋ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
37
⁄ 60
WALL OF SWORDS
×WRONG · SKIP
SET lea #42GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€27.12
≈ A$45
→
MODEL AU
A$91
51% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$91
+0 vs model

SONNET0 AU sales 90d, no buylist → near-zero liquidity. Single A$245 ask not a clearing price; CM 30d €77 vs 7d €43 → sharp recent decay; EDHREC 19728, weak velocity, 120d horizon → no triangulation.

＋ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
＋ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
37
⁄ 60
WALL OF SWORDS
×WRONG · SKIP
SET lea #42GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€27.12
≈ A$45
→
MODEL AU
A$91
51% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$91
+0 vs model

SONNETVanilla LEA uncommon creature, EDHREC ~19728, 0 AU eBay 90d, no buylist, CM trend €77→€43→€34 sharp compression. Single A$245 ask is illiquid outlier; A$91 has no velocity for 120d realisation.

＋ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
＋ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
37
⁄ 60
WALL OF SWORDS
×WRONG · SKIP
SET lea #42GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€27.12
≈ A$45
→
MODEL AU
A$91
51% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$91
+0 vs model

OPUSWall of Swords LEA: RL but EDHREC 19728 near-zero playable demand. A$245 single-dealer is illiquid collector outlier; 0 90d AU sales + weak velocity → A$91 in 120d implausible at A$50 landed cost.

＋ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
＋ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
41
⁄ 60
BIORHYTHM
◐DERATED
SET 9ed #231★GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€23.34
≈ A$39
→
MODEL AU
A$82
56% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$70
-12 vs model

SONNETDealer asks A$124-125 support real AU premium, but 0 eBay sold 90d → no velocity confirmation. EDHREC 12650 + Commander-banned severely limits buyer pool to casual/cube. A$82 achievable with patience but 120d horizon with 0 sales = derate.

＋ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
＋ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
41
⁄ 60
BIORHYTHM
×WRONG · SKIP
SET 9ed #231★GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€23.34
≈ A$39
→
MODEL AU
A$82
56% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$82
+0 vs model

OPUS9ED foil Biorhythm: niche cEDH/casual finisher with ~zero AU liquidity (0 eBay 90d, no buylist, 2 dealer asks A$124-125 EX/NM single-dealer above-market). Engine A$82 in 120d on weak velocity unsupported.

＋ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
＋ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
41
⁄ 60
BIORHYTHM
×WRONG · SKIP
SET 9ed #231★GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€23.34
≈ A$39
→
MODEL AU
A$82
56% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$82
+0 vs model

SONNETBanned in Commander → primary demand driver gone. 0 eBay sales 90d, weak velocity, no buylist. Dealer asks A$124-125 stale single-ask illiquid. EDHREC 12650 fringe even if legal.

＋ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
＋ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
41
⁄ 60
BIORHYTHM
?UNVERIFIED
SET 9ed #231★GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€23.34
≈ A$39
→
MODEL AU
A$82
56% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$82
+0 vs model

SONNET0 AU sold 90d + no buylist → no triangulation. Two dealer listings A$124-125 suggest priced high in AU but weak velocity + 0 realised sales → engine cannot be confirmed or derated from data alone.

＋ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
＋ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
41
⁄ 60
BIORHYTHM
×WRONG · SKIP
SET 9ed #231★GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€23.34
≈ A$39
→
MODEL AU
A$82
56% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$82
+0 vs model

SONNETBiorhythm Commander-banned (banned 2011), EDHREC 12650, 0 AU eBay sold 90d, weak velocity, no buylist. Dealer asks A$124-125 stale single-ask illiquid. No realistic AU clearing at A$82.

＋ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
＋ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
41
⁄ 60
BIORHYTHM
×WRONG · SKIP
SET 9ed #231★GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€23.34
≈ A$39
→
MODEL AU
A$82
56% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$82
+0 vs model

SONNET0 AU sold 90d, no buylist → no clearing velocity. 2 dealer asks A$124-125 are isolated retail not liquid market; Biorhythm banned in Commander since 2010 → format exclusion drastically shrinks buyer pool.

＋ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
＋ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
42
⁄ 60
LADY ZHURONG, WARRIOR QUEEN
◐DERATED
SET ptk #139GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 1
EU ACQ
€36.65
≈ A$60
→
MODEL AU
A$111
36% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$95
-16 vs model
·
v2 VALUER●
A$103
[A$80–A$140] · width A$60

SONNETeBay AU n=1 at A$160 = single-sample outlier cannot anchor median. Real liquid AU clearing closer to A$90-110; PTK card with EDHREC 25314 + weak velocity → low-demand.

＋ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
＋ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
42
⁄ 60
LADY ZHURONG, WARRIOR QUEEN
◐DERATED
SET ptk #139GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 1
EU ACQ
€36.65
≈ A$60
→
MODEL AU
A$111
36% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$95
-16 vs model
·
v2 VALUER●
A$103
[A$80–A$140] · width A$60

OPUSPTK rare with legitimate scarcity + Commander demand, EDHREC 25314 niche. A$111 rests on n=1 eBay sold + 2 dealer asks (A$168/A$318) bracketing wide illiquid range; CM €41 → €36 softening.

＋ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
＋ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
42
⁄ 60
LADY ZHURONG, WARRIOR QUEEN
◐DERATED
SET ptk #139GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 1
EU ACQ
€36.65
≈ A$60
→
MODEL AU
A$111
36% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$95
-16 vs model
·
v2 VALUER●
A$103
[A$80–A$140] · width A$60

SONNETLady Zhurong PTK rare with genuine scarcity + Commander appeal (EDHREC 25k niche), dealer A$168-318 credible retail but not liquid. Single eBay A$160 is above-market outlier. Realistic A$95 with high variance.

＋ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
＋ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
42
⁄ 60
LADY ZHURONG, WARRIOR QUEEN
◐DERATED
SET ptk #139GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 1
EU ACQ
€36.65
≈ A$60
→
MODEL AU
A$111
36% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$130
+19 vs model
·
v2 VALUER●
A$103
[A$80–A$140] · width A$60

SONNETSingle eBay sold (n=1, A$160) and dealer asks A$168-A$318 suggest realized clearing ~A$130 for patient NM, but n=1 + no buylist make AU distribution highly uncertain.

＋ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
＋ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
42
⁄ 60
LADY ZHURONG, WARRIOR QUEEN
◐DERATED
SET ptk #139GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 1
EU ACQ
€36.65
≈ A$60
→
MODEL AU
A$111
36% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$110
-1 vs model
·
v2 VALUER●
A$103
[A$80–A$140] · width A$60

SONNETPTK rare with near-zero AU velocity (n=1 sold 90d), weak EDHREC 25k+. Single outlier eBay A$160 drags median; engine A$111 directionally plausible but 120-day horizon likely → 6-12 months to clear.

＋ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
＋ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
42
⁄ 60
LADY ZHURONG, WARRIOR QUEEN
◉CONFIRMED
SET ptk #139GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 1
EU ACQ
€36.65
≈ A$60
→
MODEL AU
A$111
36% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$130
+19 vs model
·
v2 VALUER●
A$103
[A$80–A$140] · width A$60

SONNETPTK rare with only 2 AU in stock + 1 eBay sold A$160 supports A$111 as conservative; dealer A$168-318 confirms AU market accepts above landed. Weak velocity + n=1 prevent higher confidence.

＋ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
＋ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
62
⁄ 60
UTHDEN TROLL
×WRONG · SKIP
SET lea #180GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€47.54
≈ A$78
→
MODEL AU
A$126
19% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$126
+0 vs model

SONNETLEA Uthden Troll: 0 AU sold 90d, single EX-condition dealer A$190 = no liquid AU sell-side. CM avg30d €94 vs avg7d €63 vs trend €57 → sharp collapse; EDHREC 29066 near-zero Commander demand.

＋ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
＋ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
62
⁄ 60
UTHDEN TROLL
×WRONG · SKIP
SET lea #180GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€47.54
≈ A$78
→
MODEL AU
A$126
19% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$126
+0 vs model

OPUSUthden Troll LEA: RL Alpha card at €47.54 bottom of LEA-uncommon, but 0 AU sold comps, EDHREC 29066 near-zero EDH demand, single $190 EX dealer ask (illiquid single-dealer-above-market). A$126 NM clearing 120d unsupported.

＋ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
＋ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
62
⁄ 60
UTHDEN TROLL
×WRONG · SKIP
SET lea #180GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€47.54
≈ A$78
→
MODEL AU
A$126
19% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$126
+0 vs model

SONNETUthden Troll LEA: RL uncommon, EDHREC 29066, 0 AU sales 90d, no buylist. Single A$190 EX ask = lone above-market ask not liquid signal. CM avg30d €94 vs avg7d €63 → sharp decline. Hold-forever collectible not arb.

＋ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
＋ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
62
⁄ 60
UTHDEN TROLL
◐DERATED
SET lea #180GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€47.54
≈ A$78
→
MODEL AU
A$126
19% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$90
-36 vs model

SONNETLEA Uthden Troll: 0 AU eBay sold 90d, no buylist → speculative. One A$190 EX ask suggests ceiling but single-ask illiquidity; CM €94→€63 softening EU demand. Derate to ~A$90 reflects RL floor against thin sell-side.

＋ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
＋ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
62
⁄ 60
UTHDEN TROLL
?UNVERIFIED
SET lea #180GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€47.54
≈ A$78
→
MODEL AU
A$126
19% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$126
+0 vs model

SONNET0 AU sold 90d + no AU buylist → no sell-side price signal. Single dealer A$190 EX = one illiquid data point; CM avg7d/avg30d divergence (€63 vs €94) suggests variant/condition conflation. Insufficient evidence.

＋ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
＋ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
62
⁄ 60
UTHDEN TROLL
×WRONG · SKIP
SET lea #180GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€47.54
≈ A$78
→
MODEL AU
A$126
19% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$126
+0 vs model

SONNETUthden Troll LEA: RL uncommon deep-cut with near-zero EDH (rank 29066), 0 AU sold 90d. CM avg30d €94 vs avg7d €63 = sharp collapse; landed A$87 already stale-high. A$190 EX dealer ask is outlier not market.

＋ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
＋ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
64
⁄ 60
POISON ARROW
×WRONG · SKIP
SET ptk #80GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€6.24
≈ A$10
→
MODEL AU
A$34
116% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$34
+0 vs model

SONNET0 AU confirmed sales 90d (weak velocity, no price discovery). Sole AU ref is single dealer ask A$148 — stale collector outlier on low-play Portal Three Kingdoms uncommon (EDHREC 30465). No empirical anchor.

＋ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
＋ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
64
⁄ 60
POISON ARROW
×WRONG · SKIP
SET ptk #80GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€6.24
≈ A$10
→
MODEL AU
A$34
116% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$34
+0 vs model

SONNETPoison Arrow PTK uncommon: 0 AU eBay sold 90d, single AU dealer outlier A$148, no buylist support — classic single-ask illiquidity masquerading as price signal. EDHREC 30465 + weak velocity confirm no meaningful AU demand.

＋ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
＋ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
64
⁄ 60
POISON ARROW
×WRONG · SKIP
SET ptk #80GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€6.24
≈ A$10
→
MODEL AU
A$34
116% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$34
+0 vs model

SONNET0 eBay AU sold comps 90d + no buylist offers = no evidence of AU demand at any price. Single dealer ask A$148 is illiquid outlier not clearing price. Weak velocity + no sell-side signal → A$34 unsupported.

＋ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
＋ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
64
⁄ 60
POISON ARROW
×WRONG · SKIP
SET ptk #80GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€6.24
≈ A$10
→
MODEL AU
A$34
116% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$34
+0 vs model

SONNETPoison Arrow PTK: narrow format-restricted sorcery with near-zero Commander/competitive play (EDHREC 30465). 0 AU eBay sold 90d + no buylist confirms no liquid AU market. Single A$148 ask is illiquid curiosity-price.

＋ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
＋ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
64
⁄ 60
POISON ARROW
×WRONG · SKIP
SET ptk #80GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€6.24
≈ A$10
→
MODEL AU
A$34
116% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$34
+0 vs model

OPUSPTK uncommons: thin EU supply props CM trend €6.24 but AU demand essentially zero (0 eBay 90d, no buylist, single dealer A$148 = fantasy pricing). EDHREC 30k + weak velocity + 0 sold-comps = no liquid AU clearing path.

＋ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
＋ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
64
⁄ 60
POISON ARROW
×WRONG · SKIP
SET ptk #80GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€6.24
≈ A$10
→
MODEL AU
A$34
116% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$34
+0 vs model

SONNETPoison Arrow Portal Three Kingdoms EDHREC 30465: 0 eBay AU sold 90d, no buylist, weak velocity. Sole AU in-stock A$148 single-dealer ask above any clearing price. A$34 unsupported noise on obscure uncommon.

＋ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
＋ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
70
⁄ 60
GOBLIN WELDER
×WRONG · SKIP
SET ulg #80GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€24.91
≈ A$41
→
MODEL AU
A$73
31% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$73
+0 vs model

SONNET0 eBay AU sales 90d + weak velocity + no buylist = fatal liquidity signal. AU dealer asks A$483-675 EX = single-desk stale asks on non-English-market card with zero local traffic. NM ULG Goblin Welder has tiny AU collector base.

＋ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
＋ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
70
⁄ 60
GOBLIN WELDER
◐DERATED
SET ulg #80GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€24.91
≈ A$41
→
MODEL AU
A$73
31% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$55
-18 vs model

OPUSGoblin Welder real EDH/Vintage staple but ulg printing compressed by DMR reprint (2026 Dominaria Remastered) typically flattens older printings 20-30%. 0 AU sold + only 2 in stock + weak velocity → A$48-62 fair clearing unless Vintage/Legacy catalyst.

＋ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
＋ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
70
⁄ 60
GOBLIN WELDER
×WRONG · SKIP
SET ulg #80GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€24.91
≈ A$41
→
MODEL AU
A$73
31% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$73
+0 vs model

SONNETGoblin Welder ULG Legacy/Vintage staple but 0 eBay AU sold 90d + AU dealer asks A$483-675 EX = illiquid collector market. Engine A$73 NM has no AU velocity anchor; single-dealer-ask contamination risk extreme.

＋ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
＋ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
70
⁄ 60
GOBLIN WELDER
×WRONG · SKIP
SET ulg #80GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€24.91
≈ A$41
→
MODEL AU
A$73
31% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$73
+0 vs model

SONNET0 eBay AU sold comps 90d + no AU buylist → A$73 unanchored. Only AU data points = EX-condition dealer asks A$483-675 = outliers not comparable NM sold prices. Weak velocity + 0 confirmed AU sales = no evidence of liquid AU market.

＋ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
＋ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
70
⁄ 60
GOBLIN WELDER
×WRONG · SKIP
SET ulg #80GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€24.91
≈ A$41
→
MODEL AU
A$73
31% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$73
+0 vs model

SONNET0 eBay AU sold 90d, no buylist → no real AU demand. AU dealer prices A$483-675 EX = outliers on Exodus copies not Urza's Legacy; A$73 sell prediction entirely unsupported. Weak velocity + 0 confirmed = terminal signal.

＋ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
＋ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
70
⁄ 60
GOBLIN WELDER
×WRONG · SKIP
SET ulg #80GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€24.91
≈ A$41
→
MODEL AU
A$73
31% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$73
+0 vs model

SONNET0 eBay AU sold 90d. Only AU dealer prices (A$483-675 EX) are outlier single-dealer asks on Exodus copies, not Urza's Legacy → A$73 NM prediction unsupported. Weak velocity + 0 confirmed AU sales = no empirical basis.

＋ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
＋ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
79
⁄ 60
DISINTEGRATE
×WRONG · SKIP
SET lea #140GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€29.80
≈ A$49
→
MODEL AU
A$82
24% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$82
+0 vs model

SONNETLEA Disintegrate RL Alpha/Beta common: 0 eBay AU sold 90d, only 1 dealer A$124 EX (single ask not market). Weak velocity + no buylist → A$82 in 120d unsupported. CM avg7/30d spread suggests trend pulled by stale outliers; LEA premium often in PSA channels.

＋ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
＋ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
79
⁄ 60
DISINTEGRATE
×WRONG · SKIP
SET lea #140GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€29.80
≈ A$49
→
MODEL AU
A$82
24% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$82
+0 vs model

SONNETDisintegrate LEA RL common: 0 AU eBay sold 90d + no buylist. Single A$124 EX dealer = illiquid outlier not clearing price. EDHREC 15707 negligible Commander demand; A$82 extrapolated from single above-market ask with no realised-sale support.

＋ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
＋ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
79
⁄ 60
DISINTEGRATE
×WRONG · SKIP
SET lea #140GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€29.80
≈ A$49
→
MODEL AU
A$82
24% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$82
+0 vs model

OPUSAlpha Disintegrate RL desirable old-border common; €29.80 CM trend plausible but A$82 AU clearing rests on 0 eBay sales + no AU buylist + single A$124 EX dealer ask = illiquid thin-tape, not 120d clearing signal.

＋ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
＋ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
79
⁄ 60
DISINTEGRATE
?UNVERIFIED
SET lea #140GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€29.80
≈ A$49
→
MODEL AU
A$82
24% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$82
+0 vs model

SONNET0 eBay AU sold + no AU buylist → A$82 sell prediction entirely unsupported by realised AU market data. Sole AU data point (A$124 EX from single dealer) is raw ask in worse condition not cleared price.

＋ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
＋ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
79
⁄ 60
DISINTEGRATE
◐DERATED
SET lea #140GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€29.80
≈ A$49
→
MODEL AU
A$82
24% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$60
-22 vs model

SONNETLEA Disintegrate RL Alpha common with real collector demand but 0 AU eBay sold 90d + weak velocity. Single A$124 EX dealer = lone illiquid ask. CM avg7d/30d (~€37) above trend (€29.80) → engine pulled depressed trend; realistic A$55-65 raw NM.

＋ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
＋ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
79
⁄ 60
DISINTEGRATE
◐DERATED
SET lea #140GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€29.80
≈ A$49
→
MODEL AU
A$82
24% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$65
-17 vs model

SONNETDisintegrate LEA: RL with real scarcity (CM trend €29.80, avg30d €36.49 stable-to-strong; A$124 EX confirms AU market exists), but 0 eBay AU sold 90d + no buylist → A$82 NM speculative; weak velocity + 1 in-stock = illiquid.

＋ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
＋ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
100
⁄ 60
ISLAND
×WRONG · SKIP
SET leb #292GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€17.28
≈ A$29
→
MODEL AU
A$52
30% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$52
+0 vs model

OPUSLEB #292 basic land — Limited Edition Beta basic lands trade €25-40 raw NM on CM with effectively zero AU eBay liquidity. Single A$92 dealer = above-market outlier not clearing; 120d at A$51.71 with weak velocity + 0 sales is not real opp.

＋ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
＋ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
100
⁄ 60
ISLAND
◐DERATED
SET leb #292GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€17.28
≈ A$29
→
MODEL AU
A$52
30% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$38
-14 vs model

SONNETLEB Island genuine collector card (Beta-era basic, RL-adjacent prestige) but 0 AU eBay sold 90d + no AU buylist → near-zero AU liquidity. Sole A$92 ask = single-dealer ceiling not clearing. A$51 achievable but only with patient capital beyond 120d.

＋ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
＋ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
100
⁄ 60
ISLAND
×WRONG · SKIP
SET leb #292GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€17.28
≈ A$29
→
MODEL AU
A$52
30% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$52
+0 vs model

SONNETLEB (Legends) basic Island RL-adjacent collectible but not Reserve List itself — 0 eBay AU sold 90d, no buylist, single A$92 dealer ask almost certainly stale slab or collector copy. A$51.71 sell = ghost price with no clearing evidence.

＋ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
＋ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
100
⁄ 60
ISLAND
◐DERATED
SET leb #292GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€17.28
≈ A$29
→
MODEL AU
A$52
30% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$32
-20 vs model

SONNETCM avg7d €31.67 sits above engine EU buy €17.28 (engine buying stale/below-trend) but AU sell-side entirely unsupported — 0 eBay sold + no buylist. Single A$92 ask = one illiquid SKU; realistic AU clearing A$32-36 leaves margin thinner.

＋ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
＋ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
100
⁄ 60
ISLAND
×WRONG · SKIP
SET leb #292GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€17.28
≈ A$29
→
MODEL AU
A$52
30% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$52
+0 vs model

SONNETIsland LEB high-reprint-warning + 0 AU sold velocity → single A$92 ask = illiquid outlier. A$51.71 sell unsupported. EU buy €17.28 also well below CM trend €29.51 → likely print-variant or condition-grade mismatch in source data.

＋ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
＋ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
100
⁄ 60
ISLAND
×WRONG · SKIP
SET leb #292GAME magicVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€17.28
≈ A$29
→
MODEL AU
A$52
30% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$52
+0 vs model

SONNETIsland LEB #292 non-foil common Basic Land — AU demand for raw essentially zero (0 eBay AU 90d, no buylist). Single A$92 dealer = stale outlier. High reprint warning + weak velocity → A$51.71 sell entirely unsupported.

＋ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
＋ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
BUY GLOBALLY · SELL AU
○ MTGARB ⁄ VERDICTS ⁄ ARCHIVE-26