mtgarbbuy globally → sell AU · MTG + Pokémon
VERDICTS
2026·05·1630 OPPS0 BUNDLE
ɴ confirmed
03
ɴ derated
15
ɴ skip
12
ɴ pending
00
claude-sonnet-4-6
01
30
LATIAS & LATIOS-GX·FOIL
×WRONG · SKIP
SET sm9 #170GAME pokemonVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€200.28
A$330
MODEL AU
A$2355
395% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$2355
+0 vs model

SONNETThe A$2354.85 sell prediction is derived entirely from AU dealer ask prices (A$3990-4468) with zero eBay AU confirmed sales in 90 days, meaning the engine has mistaken a single illiquid dealer's sticker price for a liquid market clearing price; with weak velocity and 0 confirmed sales, true AU realised value is unverifiable but almost certainly far below the prediction. The CM trend (E182) vs avg30d (E130) divergence also suggests the card is softening in the EU source market, compounding the engine's overstatement.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
01
30
LATIAS & LATIOS-GX·FOIL
×WRONG · SKIP
SET sm9 #170GAME pokemonVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€200.28
A$330
MODEL AU
A$2355
395% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$2355
+0 vs model

OPUSEngine's A$2354 prediction is extrapolated from single-dealer Good Games asks (A$3990-4468) with zero confirmed eBay AU sales in 90d and weak velocity - classic single-dealer-ask contamination. Cardmarket avg30d E130 vs trend E182 also shows the EU side is softening, not a real opp.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
01
30
LATIAS & LATIOS-GX·FOIL
×WRONG · SKIP
SET sm9 #170GAME pokemonVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€200.28
A$330
MODEL AU
A$2355
395% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$2355
+0 vs model

SONNETThe A$2354 sell prediction is implausible: 0 eBay AU confirmed sales in 90 days shows near-zero AU market liquidity, AU dealer retail of A$3990-4468 is aspirational ask pricing not clearing price, and the SM9 Tag Team GX era is out of Standard/Expanded competitive relevance reducing collector demand. The EU CM trend of E182 with weak velocity and a 120-day horizon against a single AU retail ask signals the engine extrapolated from a stale retail stub rather than realised AU sales.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
01
30
LATIAS & LATIOS-GX·FOIL
×WRONG · SKIP
SET sm9 #170GAME pokemonVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€200.28
A$330
MODEL AU
A$2355
395% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$2355
+0 vs model

SONNETZero eBay AU confirmed sales in 90 days and no AU buylist offers signal near-zero real liquidity; the single Good Games in-stock ask at A$3,990-4,468 is a single-dealer ask with no clearing evidence, and weak velocity confirms the AU market cannot absorb this card - the A$2,354 sell prediction has no transactional support. CM avg30d (E130.57) vs avg7d (E168.64) divergence also suggests recent speculative spike, further undermining the EU buy basis.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
01
30
LATIAS & LATIOS-GX·FOIL
×WRONG · SKIP
SET sm9 #170GAME pokemonVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€200.28
A$330
MODEL AU
A$2355
395% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$2355
+0 vs model

SONNETZero eBay AU confirmed sales in 90 days and no buylist offers signals near-zero realised demand at any price; Good Games retail ask of A$3990-4468 reflects sticker price not clearing price, and with only 1 AU listing and weak velocity the engine's A$2354 sell prediction is a fantasy anchored on dead retail stock. A 15-year AU LGS dealer would not touch this - the card simply does not move in AU at these prices.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
01
30
LATIAS & LATIOS-GX·FOIL
DERATED
SET sm9 #170GAME pokemonVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€200.28
A$330
MODEL AU
A$2355
395% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$350
-2005 vs model

SONNETAU dealer retail asks A$3990-4468 confirm the card commands a real premium in AU, but 0 eBay AU sold comps in 90d and weak velocity mean actual clearing price is deeply uncertain; the engine's A$2354 sell prediction is plausible as a theoretical ceiling but likely overstates realistic 120d realisation for a thin, slow-moving tag team GX with no buylist support.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
02
30
GENGAR & MIMIKYU-GX
DERATED
SET sm9 #186GAME pokemonVEL mediumEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 2
EU ACQ
€136.33
A$225
MODEL AU
A$1179
262% ROI · 60d
·
JUDGE AU
A$320
-859 vs model
·
v2 VALUER
A$350
[A$210A$525] · width A$315

SONNETeBay AU n=2 with both sales at A$1838 is almost certainly PSA-graded slab contamination - raw NM copies of sm9 #186 Gengar & Mimikyu-GX Rainbow Rare realistically clear in the A$200-500 range based on CM trend ~E124 and the typical AU raw premium; the engine's A$1178 sell prediction inherits an inflated median from a vanishingly thin, almost certainly graded-only sample and overstates by 2-4x.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
02
30
GENGAR & MIMIKYU-GX
DERATED
SET sm9 #186GAME pokemonVEL mediumEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 2
EU ACQ
€136.33
A$225
MODEL AU
A$1179
262% ROI · 60d
·
JUDGE AU
A$350
-829 vs model
·
v2 VALUER
A$350
[A$210A$525] · width A$315

SONNETThe n=2 eBay AU sold sample with median A$1838 almost certainly includes PSA-graded slabs or exceptional condition premiums contaminating the raw price signal; the engine's A$1178 sell prediction is built on this thin, likely-contaminated median. Gengar & Mimikyu-GX Rainbow Rare is a legitimate sought card but realistic NM raw clearing in AU sits far below A$1178, closer to A$300-500 given CM trend of E124 and no buylist or dealer support.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
02
30
GENGAR & MIMIKYU-GX
DERATED
SET sm9 #186GAME pokemonVEL mediumEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 2
EU ACQ
€136.33
A$225
MODEL AU
A$1179
262% ROI · 60d
·
JUDGE AU
A$350
-829 vs model
·
v2 VALUER
A$350
[A$210A$525] · width A$315

SONNETn=2 eBay AU sold with a single A$1838 data point is almost certainly a PSA slab sale contaminating the raw median - Rainbow Rares at this price point almost exclusively trade graded in AU, and a raw NM copy clears far lower. Engine's A$1178 prediction is anchored to a slab comp and the medium velocity + zero dealer stock signal thin liquidity; realistic raw NM clearing is A$300-500 over 60-90d with meaningful unsold risk.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
02
30
GENGAR & MIMIKYU-GX
DERATED
SET sm9 #186GAME pokemonVEL mediumEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 2
EU ACQ
€136.33
A$225
MODEL AU
A$1179
262% ROI · 60d
·
JUDGE AU
A$1838
+659 vs model
·
v2 VALUER
A$350
[A$210A$525] · width A$315

SONNETeBay AU sold sample is n=2 with median=A$1838, which is above the engine's A$1178 prediction, but n=2 over 90d is near-zero velocity and likely includes PSA-graded slabs inflating raw sold prices for a Foil: no Rainbow Rare; engine ROI at 262% on medium velocity with zero dealer stock and no buylist offers suggests extreme illiquidity, so the sold sample cannot be taken at face value and confidence is low.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
02
30
GENGAR & MIMIKYU-GX
DERATED
SET sm9 #186GAME pokemonVEL mediumEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 2
EU ACQ
€136.33
A$225
MODEL AU
A$1179
262% ROI · 60d
·
JUDGE AU
A$220
-959 vs model
·
v2 VALUER
A$350
[A$210A$525] · width A$315

SONNETThe AU eBay sold data is n=2 with a suspiciously high A$1838 median that is almost certainly PSA-slab contamination inflating the raw price signal - the engine's A$1178 prediction anchors heavily on this thin, likely graded-card sample. Rainbow Rare Gengar & Mimikyu-GX (SM9 #186) is a real hype card with genuine collector demand, but raw NM copies realistically clear in the A$150-300 range on AU eBay against competition from JP and US supply; the engine dramatically overshoots by treating two slab sales as the liquid raw market.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
02
30
GENGAR & MIMIKYU-GX
DERATED
SET sm9 #186GAME pokemonVEL mediumEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 2
EU ACQ
€136.33
A$225
MODEL AU
A$1179
262% ROI · 60d
·
JUDGE AU
A$750
-429 vs model
·
v2 VALUER
A$350
[A$210A$525] · width A$315

OPUSGengar & Mimikyu-GX Rainbow Rare (sm9 #186) is a genuinely valuable chase card with EU trend E124 (~A$223 landed) supporting real cost, but the A$1838 AU median is from only n=2 sales and CM 7d/30d averages (~E102-107) suggest softening; engine A$1179 prediction likely overshoots typical NM raw clearing (PSA-graded slabs likely contaminate the AU median).

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
03
30
ARCEUS & DIALGA & PALKIA-GX·FOIL
DERATED
SET sm12 #221GAME pokemonVEL mediumEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 4
EU ACQ
€111.60
A$184
MODEL AU
A$820
206% ROI · 60d
·
JUDGE AU
A$820
0 vs model

SONNETeBay AU n=4 over 90d is thin (medium velocity) and Good Games in-stock at A$911-944 suggests retail ceiling is real, but the engine's A$820 prediction sits plausibly within the sold range (median A$801, max A$919); primary risk is that 5 GG units in stock plus low undercut signal slow clearing, and a single outlier sale (A$919) may inflate the median - derate slightly to reflect realistic clearance below retail ceiling with illiquidity drag.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
03
30
ARCEUS & DIALGA & PALKIA-GX·FOIL
CONFIRMED
SET sm12 #221GAME pokemonVEL mediumEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 4
EU ACQ
€111.60
A$184
MODEL AU
A$820
206% ROI · 60d
·
JUDGE AU
A$800
-20 vs model

OPUSADP-GX (SM12 #221, Rainbow Rare) is a chase card with strong format/collector demand; eBay AU sold n=4 median A$801 plus 5 dealer asks A$911-944 corroborate engine's ~A$820 prediction. Thin liquidity (1 in stock, n=4 sold/90d) is the main risk, but price level is plausible.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
03
30
ARCEUS & DIALGA & PALKIA-GX·FOIL
DERATED
SET sm12 #221GAME pokemonVEL mediumEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 4
EU ACQ
€111.60
A$184
MODEL AU
A$820
206% ROI · 60d
·
JUDGE AU
A$680
-140 vs model

SONNETADP-GX sm12 #221 is a genuine chase card with strong AU dealer pricing (A$911-944) and thin eBay AU sold depth (n=4), but the engine's A$820 sell prediction is inflated by PSA-slab contamination risk in a 4-sale sample and single-dealer ask anchoring; realistic NM raw clearing price is closer to A$650-700 given the wide bid-ask spread and no AU buylist interest. Medium velocity with only 1 competing AU listing is promising but insufficient to trust the full A$820 projection.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
03
30
ARCEUS & DIALGA & PALKIA-GX·FOIL
CONFIRMED
SET sm12 #221GAME pokemonVEL mediumEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 4
EU ACQ
€111.60
A$184
MODEL AU
A$820
206% ROI · 60d
·
JUDGE AU
A$820
0 vs model

SONNETeBay AU sold sample (n=4, median A$801, max A$919) and Good Games dealer stock (A$911-A$944) both triangulate tightly around the engine's A$820 sell prediction; Cardmarket avg7d E94.18 supports the EU buy at E111.60 as plausible (trend is higher at E101.45). Low AU supply (1 in stock) and medium velocity with no buylist offers are consistent with a real but illiquid opportunity at the engine's price point.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
03
30
ARCEUS & DIALGA & PALKIA-GX·FOIL
DERATED
SET sm12 #221GAME pokemonVEL mediumEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 4
EU ACQ
€111.60
A$184
MODEL AU
A$820
206% ROI · 60d
·
JUDGE AU
A$780
-40 vs model

SONNETADP-GX sm12 #221 is the alternate-art secret rare - eBay AU n=4 median A$801 and Good Games in-stock at A$911-944 are internally consistent and suggest a real liquid market, but the engine's A$820 prediction is reasonable while its 206% ROI headline is based on an EU buy trend (E101) that has been compressing (avg30d E90), and medium velocity + only 1 AU listing means clearing risk is meaningful; a veteran would shade the clearing price 5-10% off Good Games retail and treat this as a real but execution-sensitive position, not a layup.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
03
30
ARCEUS & DIALGA & PALKIA-GX·FOIL
CONFIRMED
SET sm12 #221GAME pokemonVEL mediumEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 4
EU ACQ
€111.60
A$184
MODEL AU
A$820
206% ROI · 60d
·
JUDGE AU
A$820
0 vs model

SONNETAU dealer in-stock at A$911-944 and eBay AU 90d median A$801 (n=4, max A$919) both sit well above the engine's A$820 sell prediction, confirming price level; only cautions are thin eBay velocity (n=4) and no buylist depth, consistent with medium velocity and low undercut in a thinly-stocked market.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
04
30
DEOXYS-EX·FOIL
×WRONG · SKIP
SET bw9 #111GAME pokemonVEL mediumEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 2
EU ACQ
€44.15
A$73
MODEL AU
A$497
367% ROI · 60d
·
JUDGE AU
A$497
+0 vs model
·
v2 VALUER
A$265
[A$180A$350] · width A$170

SONNETThe CM data is self-contradictory and deeply suspect: avg7d=E31.74 vs avg30d=E17.19 with a trend=E40.14 suggests either print-variant conflation (multiple Deoxys-EX printings in BW9 region or promo variants) or volatile low-liquidity noise - not a stable E44 floor. The AU eBay sold sample is n=2 with median=A$610 likely contaminated by PSA-graded slabs or sealed-lot sales, while the AU dealer stack of five identical Good Games listings at A$804 reads as a single stale dealer ask artificially inflating the market, and the no-buylist-offers signal means no real wholesale demand exists to anchor the A$496 sell prediction.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
04
30
DEOXYS-EX·FOIL
DERATED
SET bw9 #111GAME pokemonVEL mediumEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 2
EU ACQ
€44.15
A$73
MODEL AU
A$497
367% ROI · 60d
·
JUDGE AU
A$120
-377 vs model
·
v2 VALUER
A$265
[A$180A$350] · width A$170

OPUSDeoxys-EX 111/116 (Plasma Blast secret rare) has genuine collector demand, but engine A$496 leans on n=2 eBay sold + a single Good Games ask of A$804 - both thin, with CM trend E40 and avg30d E17 suggesting true market closer to A$80-180; opp likely real but ROI materially overstated.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
04
30
DEOXYS-EX·FOIL
×WRONG · SKIP
SET bw9 #111GAME pokemonVEL mediumEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 2
EU ACQ
€44.15
A$73
MODEL AU
A$497
367% ROI · 60d
·
JUDGE AU
A$497
+0 vs model
·
v2 VALUER
A$265
[A$180A$350] · width A$170

SONNETThe AU sell prediction of A$496 is anchored on only 2 eBay sold comps (n=2, median A$610) over 90 days - an extremely thin sample that is almost certainly contaminated by PSA-graded slabs or exceptional condition copies, not raw NM. The Cardmarket data shows a severe avg30d (E17.19) vs trend (E40.14) divergence suggesting active price collapse or variant conflation; Deoxys-EX BW9 #111 is a mid-era EX-block full-art that has been reprinted/redistributed and does not hold the premium the engine projects in AU at current volumes.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
04
30
DEOXYS-EX·FOIL
DERATED
SET bw9 #111GAME pokemonVEL mediumEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 2
EU ACQ
€44.15
A$73
MODEL AU
A$497
367% ROI · 60d
·
JUDGE AU
A$350
-147 vs model
·
v2 VALUER
A$265
[A$180A$350] · width A$170

SONNETeBay AU n=2 is too thin to anchor at A$496; median sold A$610 and Good Games retail A$804 suggest genuine demand, but avg30d CME17.19 vs trendE40 signals recent EU price spike with shallow depth, making engine's A$496 plausible directionally but likely overshooting the realistic clearing band. DERATED to ~A$350 p50 given thin AU sold sample, no buylist support, and low velocity.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
04
30
DEOXYS-EX·FOIL
DERATED
SET bw9 #111GAME pokemonVEL mediumEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 2
EU ACQ
€44.15
A$73
MODEL AU
A$497
367% ROI · 60d
·
JUDGE AU
A$280
-217 vs model
·
v2 VALUER
A$265
[A$180A$350] · width A$170

SONNETDeoxys-EX (BW9 #111) eBay AU sample is razor-thin (n=2, single sale at A$610) and the 30d CM avg of E17.19 vs trend E40.14 signals price is still settling after a spike - the engine is anchoring on the high outlier rather than the trend; Good Games pricing at A$804 is retail ceiling not clearing price, and with only 1 AU listing and medium velocity this will likely clear in the A$200-380 range for a raw NM copy, making the A$496 prediction a significant overshoot.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
04
30
DEOXYS-EX·FOIL
DERATED
SET bw9 #111GAME pokemonVEL mediumEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 2
EU ACQ
€44.15
A$73
MODEL AU
A$497
367% ROI · 60d
·
JUDGE AU
A$250
-247 vs model
·
v2 VALUER
A$265
[A$180A$350] · width A$170

SONNETGood Games AU dealer stock at A$804 and 2 eBay AU sold at A$610 median confirm genuine AU demand well above landed cost, but the 90d CM avg30d of E17.19 vs trend of E40.14 suggests strong recent spike with thin buy-side depth, and n=2 eBay sold is too sparse to anchor a A$496 prediction reliably; a realistic 60d clearing price of A$250 is more defensible given medium velocity and single AU listing.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
05
30
ROCKET'S ZAPDOS EX·FOIL
×WRONG · SKIP
SET ex7 #106GAME pokemonVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€86.60
A$143
MODEL AU
A$658
217% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$658
+0 vs model

SONNETThe A$658 sell prediction is unsupported: zero eBay AU sold comps in 90 days signals near-zero AU liquidity, and the sole AU data point is a single dealer ask (Mana Market A$1061 EX) that almost certainly inflates the model's AU price anchor - classic single-dealer-ask masquerading as market. Cardmarket trend/avg divergence (E78 trend vs E59 avg30d) also suggests the EU buy price is already running hot on thin recent volume.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
05
30
ROCKET'S ZAPDOS EX·FOIL
×WRONG · SKIP
SET ex7 #106GAME pokemonVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€86.60
A$143
MODEL AU
A$658
217% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$658
+0 vs model

SONNETZero eBay AU confirmed sales in 90d combined with weak velocity indicates no demonstrated AU clearing demand at any price; the A$658 sell prediction is almost certainly a foil-column inversion artefact (Rare Holo EX CM row pulling wrong column) inflating the EU buy cost and AU target simultaneously, making the entire spread fictional. With a single AU dealer ask at A$1061 and no sold comps, there is no reliable AU price anchor.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
05
30
ROCKET'S ZAPDOS EX·FOIL
×WRONG · SKIP
SET ex7 #106GAME pokemonVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€86.60
A$143
MODEL AU
A$658
217% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$658
+0 vs model

SONNETZero eBay AU confirmed sales in 90d and no buylist offers means A$658 sell prediction has no empirical anchor; the sole AU dealer data point is a single ask at A$1061 (EX condition, not NM), which is a one-dealer illiquid signal that cannot support a liquid clearing price. With weak velocity, low undercount (1 in stock), and CM avg7d (E70) already below trend (E78), there is no triangulated evidence this card clears anywhere near the engine's A$658 figure within 120d.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
05
30
ROCKET'S ZAPDOS EX·FOIL
×WRONG · SKIP
SET ex7 #106GAME pokemonVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€86.60
A$143
MODEL AU
A$658
217% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$658
+0 vs model

SONNETZero confirmed AU eBay sales in 90 days with only 1 unit in stock (likely the Mana Market A$1061 slab-or-EX listing) is a dead liquidity signal; the engine's A$658 prediction almost certainly inherits from a PSA-graded or EX-condition outlier inflating the AU price anchor, and weak velocity on a E70-80 CM card with a steep 30d downtrend (E59->E70->E78 avg compressing toward trend) makes a 120-day clearing at 4x EU cost implausible for a raw NM copy in the AU market.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
05
30
ROCKET'S ZAPDOS EX·FOIL
DERATED
SET ex7 #106GAME pokemonVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€86.60
A$143
MODEL AU
A$658
217% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$180
-478 vs model

SONNETZero AU eBay sold in 90 days and no buylist offers signal near-zero liquidity, making the A$658 sell prediction implausible at any realistic hold horizon; the single Mana Market ask at A$1061 (EX) is a graded-slab contamination artifact, not a raw NM benchmark, and CM avg30d of E59.54 vs avg7d of E70.28 suggests recent speculative run-up rather than organic demand, so a realistic NM raw AU clearing price of ~A$150-250 is plausible but only with patient capital and thin market risk.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
05
30
ROCKET'S ZAPDOS EX·FOIL
×WRONG · SKIP
SET ex7 #106GAME pokemonVEL weakEXIT mtg_mate_retailEBAY-N 0
EU ACQ
€86.60
A$143
MODEL AU
A$658
217% ROI · 120d
·
JUDGE AU
A$658
+0 vs model

OPUSRocket's Zapdos ex is a 2004 EX Team Rocket Returns Rare Holo EX where the engine's A$658 AU sell prediction is implausible - single dealer ask at A$1061 is a thin-market outlier, CM trend E78 with declining 7d/30d averages signals weak demand, and zero eBay AU sold in 90d means no realised clearing price supports this magnitude; classic Pokemon EX-era foil-column inversion / illiquid-ask contamination pattern.

+ RECORD OVERRIDE(buy despite SKIP / skip despite CONFIRMED — log the why)
DECISION
OVERRIDE CLASS
STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS
TIME-BOX (DAYS)
declare yourself wrong if outcome hasn't materialised by then
NOTES
+ RECORD BUY(1-click outcome → arb_outcomes; pairs to v2 prediction; pre-fills EU€)
BUY GLOBALLY · SELL AU
○ MTGARB ⁄ VERDICTS ⁄ ARCHIVE-26